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To: donald sew who wrote (52709)	9/15/1998 4:45:00 PM
From: Pierre J. LeBel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

Donald. The 'irrational exuberance' comments were made in December 1996 with the Dow around 6500. Pierre

To: donald sew who wrote (52709)	9/15/1998 6:26:00 PM
From: Gabriel008	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

Tomorrow, if Greenspan doesn't directly state that the fed will reduce or is heavily inclined to reduce rates at its FOMC meeting September 29 we can expect a sharp pullback tomorrow afternoon. Incidentally, the MM's are waiting for this kind of situation because of options expiration Friday. Nothing like a few down or flat days to manipulate stock prices in order to render the maximum number of open interest calls & puts worthless.

To: donald sew who wrote (52709)	9/15/1998 11:31:00 PM
From: wiley murray	Respond to of 58727

Hi Donald: Good job of analysis. I think three heavy days up is going to result in a down tomorrow. Law of averages that Trader Vic goes by.If the market does not get a good signal from AG on interest rates tomorrow look out below.

To: donald sew who wrote (52709)	9/16/1998 12:08:00 AM
From: Nancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Donald, Greenspan first said that irrational exurberance back in Dec 1996 when DOW was around 6200 BUT the 30-yr bond yield is close to 7% - you need to use bond yield to figure out the valuation of this market - with bond yield at 5.25%, DOW can be at 7500 being fairvalued when dividend is factored in. Valuation is a relative measure not an absolute calc. Greenie's model is using the inverted earnings to calc the "yield" of stock and compare it to the 10-year note. Stock should "yield" a 1/2 percentage to 1 percentage higher to compensate the risk. You can check out WSJ or Barron to get the "earnings" of DOW or SPX to calc the "yield", dont forget to throw in the dividend too. of course, whether these earnings remain true going into next 6-12 months is an important consideration. If Econ slows down, it wont, and Greenie will lower rate to prevent us fall into a recession.