WSJ. Analysts Debate What's Next For Humbled Tellabs, Ciena [ASND references]
September 15, 1998
By NICK WINGFIELD THE WALL STREET JOURNAL INTERACTIVE EDITION
SAN FRANCISCO -- Now that their proposed marriage has crumbled after a month of turmoil, where do Tellabs and Ciena go from here?
On Tuesday, shares of Tellabs rebounded slightly, while Ciena was flat, after both were hammered Monday. Shares of Tellabs rose 3 9/16, or 6%, to 41 1/4 on heavy Nasdaq Stock Market trading, after dropping 16% Monday. Ciena slipped 3/16 to 13 on Nasdaq, after falling 17% the previous session.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite Index added 12.42 to 1678.11, while Morgan Stanley's high-tech 35 index rose 3.22 to 557.52.
The big drops in Ciena and Tellabs' shares came after the two telecommunications-equipment firms called off their merger deal, which would have had Tellabs acquire the smaller company for about $3.98 billion in stock. The deal started to come unhinged last month after Ciena warned of disappointing third-quarter results and said that AT&T, a major customer, wouldn't give it a key contract. A precipitous decline in Ciena's stock forced the companies in late August to revise Tellabs' earlier $6.9 billion bid for the company.
As the deal fell apart Monday, Tellabs also warned that its third-quarter earnings would be flat with second-quarter results, while Ciena warned that its fourth-quarter revenue would be "materially below" third-quarter levels.
Although the deal's demise was a major embarrassment for both parties, Wall Street analysts don't believe it will squelch other acquisitions or mergers for very long. Both companies are at the center of a rapid convergence between voice and data networking technologies that is leading to a flurry of dealmaking.
Tellabs, a maker of gear that helps phone companies manage traffic on their networks, had hoped to use Ciena, a maker of "mulitplexing" hardware that boosts the capacity of fiber-optic networks, to offer a more complete set of products to customers -- part of a general consolidation that shows no signs of abating.
In Tellabs' case, though, analysts believe the company will let the dust settle before making a major move again.
"I would be absolutely shocked to see any major acquisitions announced before the end of the year," said Michael Neiberg, an analyst ING Barings Furman Selz. "The lesson that came out of this [failed deal] is they tried to take a big bite. My read is they feel a little bit burned," he said.
Steven D. Levy, an analyst at Lehman Brothers, said he believes Tellabs will remain acquisitive, but agrees that the company will have other priorities in the near term. "If anything, they need to go in and repair their relationships with major shareholders who have not enjoyed this rollercoaster ride," said Mr. Levy. "I know that I did not find it particularly entertaining," he said.
On Tuesday, Mr. Levy revised his 12-month price target for Tellabs' stock to $75 from $100 because of the deal's demise and the broader turmoil in the stock market.
Analysts said Tellabs could potentially partner or acquire a number of firms to bolster its product lineup. Jim Kedersha, an analyst at SG Cowen Securities, said the Lisle, Ill., company could look to do a deal with a maker of high-speed asynchronous transfer mode, or ATM, switching equipment, such as Ascend Communications, Fore Systems or Newbridge Networks, or a maker of telecommunications access equipment like Advanced Fiber Communications. Tellabs could also choose to consider another pure-play multiplexing company, such as closely held Canadian firm Cambrian Systems, analysts said.
"Tellabs had put out this idea they wanted to be a top-three player" in the networking arena, said Mr. Kedersha. "If they're going to do that, they need to play in other areas."
For Ciena, the need to find a partner may be even more urgent. Published reports have already suggested the Ciena could be a takeover target for Ascend. "They can't make it on their own," said Greg Mesniaeff, an analyst at Robinson-Humphrey Co. "They don't have the critical mass in terms of size and the talent pool of people who can do software development and systems-integration work."
Tuesday's Market Activity
Elsewhere in the technology sector Tuesday, Solectron gained 6 1/16 to 49 9/16 on the New York Stock Exchange. Solectron, which provides manufacturing services to electronic-equipment companies, posted stronger-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter earnings. Also, Robinson-Humphrey raised its rating on the stock to long-term "buy" from long-term "market perform."
Northern Telecom slipped 2 1/2 to 43 3/4 on the Big Board. The Canadian telecom-gear giant said it was laying off about 3,500 workers, though none at recently acquired Bay Networks (see article).
Cyberian Outpost added 11/16 to 7 7/16 on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The on-line retailer entered into a one-year sales and marketing agreement with Time Warner's Time New Media unit. Cyberian said it will be the exclusive computer hardware, software and peripheral retailer within key Pathfinder Network sites.
Dassault Systemes added 9/16 to 42 1/8 on Nasdaq. BancAmerica Robertson Stephens raised its rating on the stock of the design-software company to "buy" from "long-term attractive."
Write to Nick Wingfield at nick.wingfield@news.wsj.com.
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