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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Trader who wrote (4120)	9/17/1998 5:55:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

Tom, >>Would be interested in your thoughts as to what it would take for you to turn bullish as opposed to deciding that the crash scenario will not materialize. I thought that was a tough one, but after giving it some thought It looks to me that the basic principle here is the higher the market, the more bullish I'll be. The easy answer is when I see the SPX within 3% of it's high. That would indicate to me that in some miraculous way, the fears have abated, the long term trend is north, and I was strategically VERY wrong. The second easy answer is if we jump higher then the 2 of 1 (the highs of the second half of August. That would be SPX 1107 and over, and the same conclusion will apply. The 200 dma and the broken March- June key support are the closer lines. I would stay bearish is we have one close over the 200 dma (lower 1060s) but would have serious doubts if we close over the key support- that became IMO a key resistance, that's OEX 520, around SPX 1070. Donno if I'd be bullish if that happens, I'd have to see Japan over 14,800 again to become a believer. To increase in bearishness I'll need a break of the lower parallel. IMO no need to ponder if a test of the lows will hold, it won't. Think about investors psychology and see what I mean. Under SPX 985 I'll be pretty sure we're headed to find new lows, and THERE ARE NO SUPPORTS. At least no significant ones that I can find, until much much lower. ATG