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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: william liao who wrote (3192)	9/16/1998 4:41:00 PM
From: gbh	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 12623

it does make sense, the lower the price cien can get (if there is a takeover), the less down side risk to the short. per your calculation the quick sale can get $18 the most. does that have less risk than a takeover price of 30, 40, or higher? William, yes, I guess this does make sense, but it is a different statement than you made in your earlier post. you also misunderstood my second point. being small does not mean being weak. all big companies had a process of evolution of being small then became bigger and more big. cien being small has nothing wrong. they have to focus on their strong products and r & d and strengthen their marketing. It has been a stand alone company for several years with explosive revenue growth. there is no reason why they cannot do the same thing again. Well, unfortunately, "the times, they are a changin". Being small now, is a disadvantage. I hate to generalize, but I challenge you to find a single sub-$1B niche networking company that has a hope of getting to the "next level" and will be able to go it alone. The closest might be ASND (about $1.4B), and although its likely they too will be bought, they are more diversified than CIEN. But, even ASND on a 2 yr. chart looks pretty bad. Most people feel the networking world will be ruled by a handful of titans, led by CSCO, LU and NT. I happen to agree. Its unlikely that a much smaller player will ever be able to break into the ranks of the big boys. the process of being taken over distracted the management attention and their focus on customers and sales. on the other hand, customers usually do not want to buy from a takeover target because there are too much uncertainty. no one intends to commit large sum of money with the suppliers whose key employees/engineers may leave due to takeover, imo only. Well, I agree on the management point. But I think customers in networking are coming to accept mergers as a way of life. There is no disputing the fact, everyone loved the TLAB/CIEN combo when it was announced. And that customers probably would still like to see the combo. But in this world, shareholders, and a short-term view, rule.