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To: Berney who wrote (3983)9/16/1998 4:13:00 PM
From: Jurgen Trautmann  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11051
 
Wow, this was a nice surprise! FYI:

Act Qty Symbol Price Acct Date
BOT 25 LGR-AT 7 1/4 Cash 09/16/98 GE 100
BOT 100 LKP-AH 5 1/2 Cash 09/16/98 CPQ 40
BOT 25 LPR-AR 5 3/8 Cash 09/16/98 PG 90
BOT 25 LZG-AM 1 11/16 Cash 09/16/98 G 65
BOT 25 SAP-CM 2 1/2 Cash 09/16/98 SAP 50

BOT 1000 SAP @ 46




To: Berney who wrote (3983)9/17/1998 7:56:00 AM
From: Jurgen Trautmann  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 11051
 
Errors, failures, mistakes and misunderstandings.

Reacting on a trend without understanding the background

Example: I bought yesterday SAP during a "dip". I didn't read something about a warning-rumor, nothing about SAP's reaction (no warning!), nothing about that silly statement of a bank that SAP would have a fair price about 30% lower...

Taking shortterm US-market-moves for serious

Example: It was absolutely clear that a cut-rate neither was intended nor indicated by Greenspan. His passed (hardly misunderstood) statement was as clear as the newest G7-statement. But all "momentum" during the last days came from a silly "hope", yesterdays selling from a silly "disappointment" and yesterdays rescue - you can't believe it - again from this overpaid US-employee Clinton. Maybe this is "clear" and "natural" for Americans - but from outside it's like looking in a zoo.

Forgetting longterm-decisions

Example: Since a relative long while I'm waiting for the second dip - I predicted several times "under 7000". Instead keeping on waiting, I lost my patience facing a intermediate-rescue of 2 1/2 days - and this just because I did not know this ridiculous Clinton-effect.

diversifying & hedging: losing the overlook is not equivalent to increasing chances

Example: Everybody knows that a "plein"-roulette-chance is 1:37. But a certain irrationalismn let us hope, that we could increase our chances playing several numbers the same time. Why? It's the good feeling when we win more often. But under the line...

could be continued...