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Technology Stocks : Asyst Technologies (ASYT) Good Value/Where is the Bottom? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Q. who wrote (1081)9/17/1998 11:06:00 AM
From: Drake  Respond to of 2313
 
Thanks, John. I needed that.



To: Q. who wrote (1081)9/17/1998 7:27:00 PM
From: Think4Yourself  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 2313
 
John, Thanks for the post. Since the folks posting here are usually
quite knowledgeable, I decided to look into your claim. My
conclusion is that, for the most part, you are correct. The small cap
semi companies are SEVERELY oversold (except for PRIA). Many are trading
between book and free cash. I disagree with your statement that
Asyst should be lumped in with the others for three reasons:

1. Most of these companies have been and are going to continue
losing relatively more money than Asyst.
2. Asyst is trading closer to cash then most of these other companies
with bleaker future earnings forecasts
3. Asyst has a monopoly picture that needs to be smack in the center
of any manufacturers future fab roadmap, due to the trend towards
shrinking line widths.

Regarding my initial complaint, I still kind of have it. These companies
know the industry is going to turn around soon. Why aren't they
buying their shares for treasury stock? They can turn around and
resell it in a year or two for 2-3 times what they paid for it. That
would be enhancing shareholder value both on the buy and the sell.

If I had $100,000 right now, I would still buy Asyst, based on what I discovered.

My numbers follow:

Company Price Cash Book PE est-EPS
PRIA 11.25 1.81 5.97 -30.1 -.08
BRKS 8.5 6.44 12.80 -35. -.13
SFAM 9. 8.85 18.10 11.14 -.02
IPEC 7.25 2.41 7.85 -3.52 -.40
MTSN 3.25 2.74 4.42 -81.25 -.16
GSNX 3.75 2.29 5.57 -125. -.16
EGLS 9.75 6.71 9.79 -325. -.21
ASYT 8.5 7.25 10.91 6.12 -.03

Source: Yahoo