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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Engel who wrote (64997)	9/17/1998 1:12:00 PM
From: GVTucker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Paul, where the heck do you get your data? <<Intel surprised on the upside TWICE in the past 9 months - in January of this year (for Q497) and July (Q298).>> In 2Q98, Intel reported earnings below just about everyone on the Street, 0.04 lower than Kurlak's number, who had one of the lowest numbers. Earnings were 0.66, Kurlak was at 0.70, and the Street was around 0.73. And that number was substantially lower than the average estimate at the beginning of the quarter, before Intel quietly began pushing estimates lower. Regarding 4Q97, yes, Intel beat the average estimate by 0.08, but at the beginning of the quarter, estimates were a full 0.10 higher, and they only beat the estimates that they themselves had talked down throughout the quarter. <<GVTucker, why don't you remind us all about Kurlak's BULLISH forecast on the semiconductor industry in early August of 1997 - stating that THE BEST IMAGINABLE SCENARIO was taking place - about 3 weeks before he decided that the BOTTOM had fallen out of the market.>> And who, pray tell, was the only analyst to call the bottom falling out BEFORE it happened? Why, your much maligned Thomas Kurlak, who significantly LOWERED his estimates on 22 Aug to the low estimate on the Street. At the time, every other Wall St analysts had Intel earning in excess of $5.00 for FY98. Kurlak's only mistake was not lowering his estimate lower than the $3.50-$3.75 range that he settled upon. And, by the way, what's your point? I have repeatedly said that there is no Wall St analyst that has a consistent record in forecasting Intel's earnings. Are you agreeing with me?