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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: djane who wrote (54337)	9/17/1998 4:45:00 PM
From: Tim Luke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

extreme moves or extreme volume generates attention, and this tends to bring in supply to offset demand which makes stocks like this to become very vulnerable to pullbacks.

To: djane who wrote (54337)	9/17/1998 5:19:00 PM
From: Pat Hughes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

Hello All, I hope these rumors continue through tomorrow. I hold some soon to be worthless options. Maybe something did leak out of the LU conference. I agree Ascend could tank if "the merger" doesn't happen, but I also think that in the long run, it would be better for us long term Ascenders. <big cross-country mergers are difficult to pull off> Djane, I don't know how much of a cross-country merger this LU/Ascend would be. I may be mistaken but I thought I read (about a year ago, I'll try to find it) that Ascend had opened an office right down the block from LU here in New Jersey? Anyway, These are very exciting days. Hopefully they will be profitable ones. Pat Hughes PS A few years ago IBM had been rumored to buy Lotus. After about a year of rumors.....................THEY FINALLY DID! I know because I had an order to buy 300 shares of Lotus on Monday morning at something like 34 and the stock opened at around 60!

To: djane who wrote (54337)	9/17/1998 5:28:00 PM
From: Jay Rommel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 61433

Can anyone verify this info? Message 5778508 TIA

To: djane who wrote (54337)	9/17/1998 5:29:00 PM
From: gbh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

djane, awfully bold move going from long to short. Its one thing to take profits, but to then bet against, takes some balls. I offer this critique, just for you to think about, as you should be aware of my position regarding LU (50-50 at best). My main fear. ASND will have a blowout quarter (pump out the long-term contracts, bring out that deferred revenue, and maximize their price for a possible LU takeover) and then express caution in the CC on future quarters given a possible slowdown and increased competition in the telecom equipment market. I don't care how good a quarter they come in with, if they express caution on the future, other than the customary CSCO/MSFT, and recently ASND style cautionary tone, the stock will be ravaged. Once the quarter comes out, its ancient history, and all anyone cares about is the future. I'm sorry, but this isn't what LU wants to hear. They want the rosy outlook, and will be willing to pay up to get it. Given its PE multiple, ASND's share price (if no LU takeover) could halve under that scenario. As stated above, ASND will implode with a too cautious CC, regardless of earnings. I need to just look at another holding of mine, CA, to see this clearly. Although I still strongly believe in the strategic fit between LU and ASND, LU may decide ASND is too expensive, there is too much product overlap, LU will take the risk of falling behind by developing next-generation products in their vaunted R&D labs, and will buy start-ups ala CSCO model to fill holes. OK, on this one, I have to stretch, because I generally agree with you. However, a guy like bucky89 might argue that CSCO buys start-ups to fill niche holes. LU has one gigantic hole called data networking, and can't risk the time to develop its own products, and customer relationships while the world passes it by. As Chambers has stated repeatedly, big cross-country mergers are difficult to pull off. Well, the better half of ASND (old Cascade) is on the east coast. Another fear. I'm starting to believe that Mory and ASND believe it can go it alone. Yes, it can, but not as a high PE multiple stock or killer investment. Ferocious competition is moving into the data networking world as data networkers move into the telecom equip world. They can certainly continue as a high PE stock for another 12-18 months. But over the long haul, I agree with you on this point. Can't argue this one. :) I'm just trying to listen to what the market is telling me. Recent declines in the price of LU and CSCO, ALA earnings warning and statement that France Telecom is cutting back on orders, NT job cuts, CIEN and TLAB warnings, chip makers (PMCS/VTSS/etc.) price delcines, etc. Telecom equipment suppliers were relying on international growth for their PE multiples, but the global economy is in recession (depression in Asia). LU certainly had a very bright story to tell analysts today. CSCO, well what can I say, they will win no matter what. TLAB pre-announced a penny short quarter, but also were very comfortable with next year. CIEN I would rather not talk about :). Companies like CSCO and LU will win. ASND is very focused on the carriers who must continue to spend in order to compete with each other. I'm just not worried about any of these 3 companies for at least the next year. Just trying to be a nimble trader. If I know you, you will be back long when ASND goes under 45 tomorrow :) Good luck. Gary