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To: dougjn who wrote (15203)	9/18/1998 11:06:00 AM
From: marginmike	Respond to of 152472

At least we agree on something! EOM

To: dougjn who wrote (15203)	9/18/1998 11:29:00 AM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 152472

For all of you awaiting with baited breath <g>, I'm getting a bit more positive today. Why? Brazil. There are signs that a standby package could be cobbled together even though the IMF is more or less broke. Big banks meeting in NYC w/IMF (and Treasury?) for that very purpose. Can such a largely private effort be enough? I don't know. Is it all show and little substance? I don't know. Yet. But at least the momentum has been stopped at the moment. Despite the House's less than wise inaction. I do know that a lot of the pressure on Brazil was a slew of 10s of billions of short term notes that come due within a few weeks. Brazil has enough reserves to cover them themselves, but not by much. Leaving empty coffers for further currency defense. But if a large enough consortium of banks can help roll those notes over.... Well, I'm staying tuned. Seems to me Brazil is that important just now. If LatAm can be saved from currency collapse, and mere suffers some garden variety slowdown due to less demand and lower prices for commodities, maybe, just maybe, we can put in some kind of bottom. It will be a long time before Asia full recovers, and lord help Indonesia. And we sure haven't felt the worst brunt of flooding imports from Korea et. al. yet. But certainly some of that, if it stops at that, is priced in already. At least one route to some of the worse possibilities would be at least temporarily blocked. Probably not enough profit reduction correction yet for your Gillettes and Cokes and P&G's. But perhaps more than enough for your Q's and Intc's. Interesting times. Big stakes. Doug