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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sea_urchin who wrote (1080)	9/18/1998 9:53:00 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Respond to of 81904

It is ironic that gold is being viewed as a commodity when in fact, the US$ is the commodity. The supply of US$ must continue to grow or inevitably contract. If/when the US$ is not desired, demand slows, the value decreases and(in US$ terms) POG rises. Many factors could cause the US$ to be less attractive. ..higher return in euro bonds, lower interest on T-bills, declining US equity market, uncertainty in US policy directions, outright rejection of US$ policy(ala IMF) etc. It is my perception that one or perhaps several of these factors are/will come into play and POG is/will rise. All IMO, of course. Chartwise, the POG strengthened on Thursday/Friday rather than dropping so we remain at the initial "breakout" resistance on the gold downtrend line. Certinly within the next two weeks POG will retreat or make higher highs. I had a chance to sell my NEM options for a double and change today but decided to hold. We'll see shortly how wise that was.-g-

To: sea_urchin who wrote (1080)	9/18/1998 10:34:00 PM
From: dospesos	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 81904

Bro Searle, I have made a lot of money and lost a lot of money being a gold bug. What I learned is that most goldbugs do not understand the function of gold, and that they are very unhappy with modern life and feel that gold will redeem their image of what the world should be like. It was a painful education for me I can tell you. The most shocking development in my goldbug experience was to see 99% of the goldbugs become converts to the deflationist scenario and still be rabidly pro-gold. Besides its uses in electronics, dentistry, jewelry, and fine art, gold is simply another floating exchange rate currency. It is good to own when it is going up (major reserve currency going down) and bad to own when it's going down. Period. In the past few weeks I have presented here and at other gold sites a number of pieces on my cycle analysis, the Dow/gold ratio, the current geopolitical situation, etc. All of these point to a rally for gold now, and even the possibility that we may have seen the lows. But all of it leads to gold not being a terribly good investment because it isn't going very high for a very long time. Under the best circumstances I can see, it could go as high as $420 by 2003-2004. That would average out to 8-10% per year from the recent lows. Doubtless some gold stocks will do much better than that due to leverage or gearing. No one on any of the sites where I have posted these ideas in the past few weeks has had even the slightest interest in them. It is almost like farting in church to discuss these things. The world is coming to an end, the sky is falling, and gold is going to $3000. Case closed! Next bullish argument please........ Aurum vobiscum, Bro Thomas PS: Taking a gold sabbatical. See you later.