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To: dospesos who wrote (1082)	9/18/1998 11:03:00 PM
From: Giraffe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81766

>>Under the best circumstances I can see, it could go as high as $420 by 2003-2004. << Pretty safe bet. When I look at the gold charts for the last 20 years its clear that the natural range for gold is between 300 and 420 - give or take 20 bucks. also the mean price is dropping over time ... probably due to lower production costs. Myself I'd be pretty happy to see it get north of 320 and 350 would be just delightful. Re. the $3000+ scenarios ... I tend to dismiss the cataclysmic views, heard it too many times over too many years. In the real world I think the big boys accumulate when gold is under 300 and they get very seriously interested in selling when it hits 400. Maybe sooner.

To: dospesos who wrote (1082)	9/19/1998 10:38:00 AM
From: GVC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81766

Thomas: In regards to your last statement.... "PS: Taking a gold sabbatical. See you later." I for one find your commentary insightful to say the least and hope your "sabbatical" is a very short one. would rather you reconsider and continue posting your thoughts/ideas during this particularly important time period in history. In any event, thank you for your thoughts.

To: dospesos who wrote (1082)	9/19/1998 12:01:00 PM
From: sea_urchin	Respond to of 81766

Dear Bro ex-Aurophile : Re your gold price estimate, based on your Dow/Gold ratio hypothesis, I would like to draw your attention to this graph of Barnes Market Risk. decisionpoint.com Looking at this index, which is apparently based on stock market returns compared to those on Government bonds, I observe: (1) since 1980, the index has not penetrated the "Low Risk" line at a level of 1 although between 1975 and 1979 it did (2) the market fall in 1987 brought the index down to a level of 2. For this to happen the Dow fell by 35%. (3) in 1998, the risk level rose higher than in 1987, and the turn down was accompanied by a much clearer reversal pattern. From this, I speculate that the Risk Index in the immediate years to come could again fall below the level of 1. Judging from the fall in 1987, this could mean a possible fall in the Dow (S&P) of at least 50% ie to around 4000. I understand (if my memory serves me) that your forecast of the gold price of $400 was based on a Dow of 8000. In line with the above circumstances, however, I wonder what your estimate of the gold price would be if the Dow was only 4000? Or even 5000? Did I hear you mention farting in church! Say fifty Hail Marys for pennance. Prosac vobiscum Bro Searle

To: dospesos who wrote (1082)	9/19/1998 11:07:00 PM
From: Robert Dirks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 81766

You left out one other use for Gold, it's the best insurance policy money can buy. The cost of the premium is lost interest you may have earned on money, and possible principal depreciation. People in Asia, Russia, Mexico, Venezuela etc. who lost up to 90% of their local wealth holding their devalued currencies could have almost fully protected themselves by holding Gold. The local price of Gold for people in Canada and Australia has more or less stayed steady. If their currencies should fall further they will be making money. Any appreciation in the US price of Gold will be a bonus. Of course, unpredictable world events, a US financial meltdown, could immediately change the value of Gold in all currencies. A bonus! And it has to be physical Gold, as paper Gold is just someone else's liability which he may or may not be able to pay - not exactly insurance. GOLD, the BEST insurance policy Money can buy..........

To: dospesos who wrote (1082)	9/20/1998 10:37:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 81766

Thomas: How have you been? Re:gold is simply another floating exchange rate currency., I would go a step further and say that gold is "transitioning" from a "floating exchange rate currency" to a standard commodity. As such, the percentage of total output of gold going into "reserves" is declining (and I would not be surprised to find out that in the last few years some reserves have been "redeployed" as a commodity, namely used in industrial and jewelry applications). Since in normal commodities, major lows are often accompanied by the closing of marginal producers, we may not see the low until we see a slightly bigger rush of such closing. Zeev