To: Herb Duncan who wrote (12387 ) 9/23/1998 1:23:00 AM From: Kerm Yerman Respond to of 15196
IN THE NEWS / Oil Industry Sees Silver Lining Despite weak demand, cuts to output may raise prices BY CLAUDIA CATTANEO Calgary Bureau Chief The Financial Post There are promising signs the oil price slump disabling Canada's oil and gas industry is coming to an end, say industry analysts. But a recovery from the longest downturn since the 1973 oil embargo is also expected to take longer and be harder than in the past, likely resulting in another winter of weaker industry activity. Oil prices have bounced back in recent weeks above US$15, climbing from a low of about US$13 in August. Yesterday, West Texas intermediate crude closed at US$15.67 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up US18›. The latest decline - one of four since 1985 - has lasted 21 months, with a 48% drop from the peak monthly average price of US$25.18 in January 1997 to an August monthly low of US$13.38. "The probability is that the worst is over, because of a combination of the time we have been in decline, the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries' production cuts and the fact we are moving to a seasonally strong period," said Wilf Gobert, managing director of research at Peters & Co. in Calgary. The good news is the OPEC and non-OPEC cuts that were agreed to earlier in the year are holding and compliance is strong - more than 80%, said Ed Peplinski, senior investment analyst with ARC Financial Corp. in Calgary. Cuts to world oil production, which was 74 million barrels a day in August, include: 2.15 million b/d by OPEC members, out of 2.6 million b/d pledged in three rounds earlier this year. OPEC produces 27.3 million b/d. 85,000 b/d, mostly higher-cost heavy oil from Canadian producers, of total production of 1.9 million b/d. 630,000 b/d by non-OPEC members China, Mexico, Norway, Russia, Egypt, Yemen and Oman. Standing in the way of a quick comeback is world oil demand, which seems more uncertain than it has ever been, said Gobert. During past price declines, recovery above US$15 occurred within four months or less from the low and was triggered by production cuts, he said. This time, that's failed to work. Weak demand is likely to persist, with Japan struggling with recession, hints of recession in the Americas, and Russia and Asia in turmoil, Gobert said. To compound the industry's problems, the length of the latest decline has reduced cash flows to such an extent the sector won't be able to take full advantage of higher natural gas demand. Drilling activity in Western Canada has declined to some of the lowest levels this decade. Only 193 drilling rigs were active in the week ended Sept. 22, out of 578 in the drilling fleet, the Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors said yesterday. The recent average was 300 active rigs. At this time last year, about 430 rigs were in operation. "Companies don't want to go out on a limb with aggressive spending, not knowing whether or how much it will recover, therefore it's going to cause a lower level of activity," Gobert said. The group now expects fewer than 11,000 wells will be drilled this year, down from 16,400 in 1997. "There is no question companies will need to see some history of good oil pricing in the rear-view mirror before they can load up their fuel tanks with cash flow to drill prospects. There is always a lag time," said Bob Geddes, general manager of Ensign Drilling Inc.