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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (28408)	9/20/1998 9:44:00 AM
From: Vitas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Stochastic entertainment: Message 5792559

To: William H Huebl who wrote (28408)	9/20/1998 9:50:00 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, Sounds reasonable to me. GZ

To: William H Huebl who wrote (28408)	9/20/1998 4:09:00 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, Thanks for taking me seriously and responding. If I may, let me rephrase and then you can tell me where I've erred in characterizing your statement: It is most likely that for the remainder of the year the market will trade within a range bound by the highs reached in July (big indices, April for small guys) and some level less than a few percent below the lows seen for the year. Maybe you see as most likely a range from 7400 to 9000 on the DOW or so. >>Now THAT'S quite a spread.<< Not picking on you, just making an observation (I know you enough to know you don't care one way or the other), given what we've recently experienced that is a somewhat small spread, especially since you're having to qualify that with the items that you mentioned. From a purely mathematical point of view -- probability, etc your reasoning doesn't seem too bad -- that's the language, ranges and so on. I think more about the non-linearity of the moves that have already taken place and what I would have told you 3 or 4 years ago if you had told me then we were going to see 9000+ on the DOW. I'm still expecting a very sharp sell-off which actually turns some of the populace off from investing in stocks -- I think it is now in process. I know many older folks with a lot of money in stocks -- far beyond the amount that a reasonably risk-adjusted portfolio should have in general. In essence, I believe one of your caveats will happen, not one of those specifically, but something and the sell-off will ensue. I don't know about TA, I just look at what I can understand of the economics. Good luck. I hope we don't crash, but that is currently my expectation ...