Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Asyst Technologies (ASYT) Good Value/Where is the Bottom? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: the hube who wrote (1102)	9/20/1998 12:09:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2313

Per a recent note on Yahoo site, ASYT inv relations apparently said qtrly cash drain from normal operations at 13-15mm revenue run rate is about $3-5mm as I recall-------therefore from June 30's $88MM deduct $11.0 for Hine acq (Hine likely had at least some cash on hand) and $4.5mm for Sept oper loss and $9.5 for share buy back of say 0.8MM shs-----one arrives at $63MM or $5.30/sh on reduced shs o/s. The assumed debt of $12 doesn't directly reduce Cash.--------My calculation of Net Net Working Capital (Cash+A/R+Inv less ALL liabiliites) is a redcution from approx $106MM (8.48/sh on higher shares) down to approximately $73MM ($6.20 on reduced shs). as Hine likely brought over some net a/r&inv itself.----------Bottom line, best guess is that ASYT prob has about $1.25-1.50/sh more downside adjustment to come before it finds a low risk bottom. The question is will the tax loss sellers( who may want to trigger the loss while simultaneously buying another deeply depressed semiequip stock to ride back up without taking the 30 day wash rule risk) sell ASYT at the low 6's given that the snap back at ASYT may be sharper than other semiequips (elastic band principle). I'm neither buying more nor selling at current prices. I do think it will be higher at year end

To: the hube who wrote (1102)	9/20/1998 5:00:00 PM
From: Mike Healy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2313

John, I liked your cash estimate. My guess is cash might be a bit higher than $50mm at 9/30 since cap-x will probably come in under depreciation for a while in this environment...at least one would hope...and I cant imagine them adding much working capital either (you assume $5MM). Do you know how much of the Hine liabilities are funded debt ? The debt portion is undoubtedly expensive and would probably be paid down, but not the other liabilities. Gary may be right about the stock buyback, but $9.5mm seems way too high for a single quarter. All in all...Ill lob in a guess of $55-60mm cash. How about a friendly wager ??? there must be some way that at least someone can make money on Asyst these days :)