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Strategies & Market Trends : Electronic Contract Manufacture (ECM) Sector -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patroller who wrote (1767)	9/20/1998 11:32:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Respond to of 2542

I hope you are correct, because I do not structure my portfolio much differently for overall market views. I buy ownership in companies not a stock market. But I think only an inexperienced investor would not see material overvaluation in the S&P 500 type of stock at recent highs. Serious economic problems in much of the world outside the US means that stocks should carry larger than normal risk premiums, not smaller than normal. I suspect that the larger stocks will not be out of trouble until people no longer believe they are a safe haven, something that has long since happened on microcaps and won't happen on bigger ones at the current price level. If this were 20 or 30 years ago, I would feel nearly certain of this view. With a larger flow of money into the market these times, I am less certain -- but if enough people get scared (and financial sector layoffs do not help sentiment) you might get a snowball of index fund withdrawals rolling downhill.