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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: md1derful who wrote (8339)	9/21/1998 11:44:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Doc, I wouldn't have expected the new babies in that list from Friday. I posted that for possible comparison purposes. Although may be later tonight, assuming they started trading today, we should see a different list. sf

To: md1derful who wrote (8339)	9/21/1998 11:45:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Brazil shrs seen starting lower following overseas Reuters, Monday, September 21, 1998 at 08:22 SAO PAULO, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Brazilians shares are poised for a lower start on Monday, staggering after stock slumps reported in Europe and Asia and a gloomy outlook for Wall Street, brokers said. "We're about to see quite a fall from the open, all because of the external scenario," a fund manager at BankBoston in Sao Paulo said. Price movements will depend heavily on Wall Street's performance, he said. The 57-share Bovespa index (INDEX:$BVSP.X) closed up 4.31 percent at 6,710 points on Friday as dollar flight from the country's forex markets slowed after a volatile week. The Sao Paulo bourse on Monday is slated to list and start trading on the 12 holding companies that will replace shares in former telephone giant Telebras (SAO:TELB4), which was privatized on July 29. The event was expected to boost activity in the bourse that has been thrashed by a massive capital flight in the last two months. However, the action may be overshadowed by volatile trading in New York today, brokers said. "Unfortunately, it will be a day full of confusion," one trader said. Telebras preferred (SAO:TELB4) had jumped 5.23 percent to 86.50 reais on Friday. Investors in Brazil will be tuned into the release of the videotaped testimony of U.S. President Bill Clinton's affair with Monica Lewinsky, due out at 0900 EDT/1300 GMT. Bluechip activity Friday: Telebras (SAO:TELB4) up 5.23 pct at 86.50 reais Petrobras (SAO:PETR4) up 3.91 pct at 119.50 reais Eletrobras (SAO:ELET6) up 1.65 pct at 24.60 reais Vale do Rio Doce (SAO:VALE5) up 3.78 pct at 19.20 reais Bovespa: * Week: up 24.2 pct * Month: up 3.6 pct * Year-to-date: down 34.1 pct SELIC (open): 3.99 pct Dollar/Real (open): 1.1810 per dollar

To: md1derful who wrote (8339)	9/21/1998 11:48:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Brazil forex markets lost more dlrs Friday-traders Reuters, Monday, September 21, 1998 at 08:30 SAO PAULO, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Brazil's foreign exchange markets showed a higher net dollar outflow last Friday after capital flight seemed to be falling to a trickle by Thursday, dealers said. A total $453 million fled the country's currency markets -- $278 million from the commercial forex market and $175 million from the floating market, dealers reported. Dollar flight had dropped to a total $207 million by Thursday, down from an average of $1.5 billion per day earlier this month. As of Friday, some $15.218 billion had left Brazil's through the forex markets so far in September. Another $12 billion flew out in August. The dollar outflows were draining Brazil's foreign currency reserves and putting pressure on the government to devalue its currency the real. The real opened at 1.1810 on Monday, unchanged from its close on Friday. Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

To: md1derful who wrote (8339)	9/21/1998 11:49:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Brazil stocks slide more on external market falls Reuters, Monday, September 21, 1998 at 09:59 SAO PAULO, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Brazilian stocks extended their losses early on Monday after investors dumped shares following steep equity falls posted in European and Asian bourses, brokers said. The 57-share Bovespa index (INDEX:$BVSP.X) tumbled 7.07 percent to 6,235 points by 1025 local/1325 GMT. Local investors were also depressed by news that Wall Street stocks were bracing for lower openings. "Market players are watching out for any fallout from the videotaped testimony of (U.S. President Bill) Clinton," said one local trader. "Performances in overseas markets that preceded us are not helping at all," he added. Prices of the 12 companies split from Brazil's former telephone holding Telebras, which started trading today, were also pressured by the overall gloomy outlook for the market. Some of the most coveted shares, such as Telesp Participacoes preferred (SAO:TLSP4), was trading at 24.01 reais, while Tele Centro Sul Participacoes (SAO:TCSP4) started at six reais. However, low volume on these shares showed that investors still opted to trade in Telebras receipts, which group all the 12 units, instead of picking up individual shares. The receipt of preferred shares (SAO:RCTB40) which replaced the Sao Paulo market's top blue-chip share Telebras preferred (SAO:TELB4), was quoted at 80.50 reais in early trade. Telebras preferred ended at 86.50 reais on Friday. In the debt market, Brazil's dollar-denominated C-bonds <BRAZILC=RR> traded in New York, were down 2.625 points at 58.5 by 1050 local/1350 GMT. Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

To: md1derful who wrote (8339)	9/21/1998 11:50:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Brazil is biggest emerging market for U.S. banks Reuters, Monday, September 21, 1998 at 10:15 By Mary Kelleher NEW YORK, Sept 21 (Reuters) - U.S. commercial banks have more money at risk in Brazil than in any other emerging market -- to the tune of about $39 billion as of the end of March -- and could feel pain if that economy faltered, analysts said. But despite turmoil in emerging markets from Asia to Latin America, analysts doubted Brazil's situation would grow so dire that it would resemble the 1980s debt crisis, when Mexico shocked bankers by announcing the need to restructure debt. "In contrast to Asia or Russia, where mostly Japanese and European banks were involved, Latin America is our backyard," David Berry, an analyst at Keefe Bruyette & Woods, said. "The U.S. does a lot of trade with Brazil, so it is a big deal. But Brazil is also quite different from these other countries." The big U.S. money center banks do have much larger and potentially worrisome credit exposures in Brazil and Latin America, a region which has shown signs of economic unrest that has also recently hurt Russia and Asia. Brazil, the biggest economy in Latin America, is dealing with a budget crisis which, coupled with an evacuation by investors from emerging markets, has left its currency vulnerable and prompted the nation's government into ongoing discussions with the International Monetary Fund. As of the end of March, all U.S. banks had exposure of about $39 billion in Brazil -- $29 billion in cross-border exposure and another $10 billion in local country liabilities, based on information the banks give regulators, said Raphael Soifer, an analyst at Brown Brothers Harriman. "That is more than any other emerging market country, so it is a big deal for the U.S. banks," Soifer said. As of the end of June, five big U.S. banks alone said they had nearly $17 billion of exposure to Brazil. Citicorp (NYSE:CCI) said its total cross-border exposure in Brazil at the end of June was $4.4 billion, of which $1.8 billion was for franchise requirements and $1.5 billion was in trading and short-term claims. Chase Manhattan Corp. (NYSE:CMB) said its total exposure in Brazil at the end of June was $4.3 billion; BankAmerica Corp. (NYSE:BAC) said $2.5 billion; BankBoston Corp. (NYSE:BKB) said its exposure was $1.7 billion and J.P. Morgan & Co. Inc. (NYSE:JPM) said its exposure was $4.0 billion. But while Brazil's problems could drag all Latin American economies down and pressure U.S. firms involved there, Brazil has a more sophisticated economy than that of many Asian nations or Russia. It also has a more stable political system and enough experience with debt crises to want to avoid another one. "Brazil is a well-developed capitalist economy, is well-engaged in world trade, has a democratically elected world government and has already lived through hyper-inflation and the dark side of default, so there is a lot of will throughout the country not to let it happen again," Berry said. U.S. banks, which struggled with loans to Latin America in the 1980s, are also more profitable than they were 10 years ago, even after being roiled by recent events in emerging markets, analysts said. "I think everyone is trying to create in Brazil the damage that we saw in Russia, but Russia was unique," Robert Albertson, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, said. "Russia had a devaluation but it also defaulted on bonds and also broke bank contracts, which hit all the hedge funds." In recent weeks many major money center banks and Wall Street brokerage firms have warned of weaker third quarter results, blaming emerging market slides in places like Russia, a slowdown in capital markets and tough conditions in businesses like junk bond trading. BankBoston on Friday increased its estimate of trading losses during the third quarter to the $40 million range from its projection of $30 million made at the end of August. Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

To: md1derful who wrote (8339)	9/21/1998 11:53:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Brazil to avoid capital outflow controls -- Malan won' Reuters, Monday, September 21, 1998 at 11:25 RIO DE JANEIRO, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Brazilian Finance Minister Pedro Malan said on Monday the government will not impose controls on capital outflows to stem a recent wave of dollar flight from the country's foreign exchange markets. "Brazil will not impose controls on capital flight...It will not carry out any one-time currency devaluation (maxi-devaluation) of the real," Malan, attending a seminar in Rio, told reporters. ..... Some $15.218 billion have fled Brazil through its commercial and floating forex markets so far this month, while another $12 billion flew out in August as emerging markets fell prey to a global economic crisis. Meanwhile, Malan predicted that the U.S. Federal Reserve Board would cut interest rates at the next meeting of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed's policy-making body, scheduled for September 29. "I believe that on September 29 the Fed will announce a reduction in interest rates," Malan said. Malan told reporters a powerful economy such as the United States should take steps to combat the effects of the financial crisis. Meanwhile, Malan said that Brazil was negotiating with other countries for a solution to the current crisis, but repeated that the government was not seeking a bail-out plan similar to those sought by Southeast Asian countries. "At no point have we talked about a rescue plan like the one that was put together for Asian countries, involving millions of dollars," Malan said. "What we want is a preventive operation, not a bail-out," he said. Last week, the Finance Ministry said Brazil was negotiating with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Group of Seven (G7) nations for "preventive steps" to tackle the crisis. Before that, the Central Bank raised domestic lending rates to an annual 49.75 percent from 29.75 percent and announced a string of budget-slashing measures in an attempt to plug a capital flight and save the economy from a full-fledged crisis. Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

To: md1derful who wrote (8339)	9/21/1998 11:55:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Telebras units may start trading in New York in Oct Reuters, Monday, September 21, 1998 at 10:40 SAO PAULO, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Spin-off units created from the privatization of Brazil's state telephone holding Telebras should begin trading in New York after Brazil's October 4 general election, Communications Minister Luiz Carlos Mendonca de Barros said on Monday. "I think (trading in New York) will begin after the elections," the minister told reporters. Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

To: md1derful who wrote (8339)	9/21/1998 11:58:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Brazil/NYSE Telebras -2: SEC Registration Not Yet Complete Dow Jones Newswires SAO PAULO -- The 12 units of Brazil's recently-privatized Telecomunicacoes Brasileiras SA (TBR), known as Telebras, will be listed on the New York Stock Exchange after the Oct. 4 elections, the Estado news agency quoted a top Brazilian official as saying Monday. Communications Minister Luiz Carlos Mendonca de Barros said that registration procedures with the Securities and Exchange Commission haven't yet been completed. The 12 units of Telebras, the local market's bellwether stock, began trading separately on Brazilian exchanges Monday.

To: md1derful who wrote (8339)	9/21/1998 11:59:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Brazil Official Urges Intl Action On Financial Crisis Dow Jones Newswires UNITED NATIONS (AP)--With the global financial crisis hitting Brazil's stock and currency markets, the immediate cooperation of all countries is needed to battle the problem, Brazil's foreign minister said in the opening speech of the General Assembly on Monday. "Experience teaches us that inaction can have a high cost," Luiz Felipe Lampreia told world leaders gathered for the assembly's 53rd annual debate. "The world cannot depend only on the willingness, capacity and interest of a select number of countries to mobilize and lead international efforts in this or that direction." In recent weeks, Brazil's stock and currency markets have been battered by the Asian economic crisis that has seen investors fleeing Asia, Russia and other developing markets. Brazil has lost some $25 billion in reserves in recent weeks, but the country still has about $50 billion in foreign reserves - making a successful speculative attack on the currency unlikely for now. Lampreia said part of the problem rests with industrialized nations who fail to treat developing countries on equal footing. Brazilian President Fernando Henrique Cardoso made the same criticism Sunday against the group of seven industrialized nations, known as G-7, for failing to expand to include developing countries. "The events of the past few months have revealed a serious lag between growing financial interdependence and the modest effectiveness of existing international mechanisms for dialogue and coordination," Lampreia said. In his speech, Lampreia also emphasized the urgency of curbing nuclear proliferation. Last week, Brazil ratified the international treaty designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. "There is no longer room or justification for postponing action in the nuclear field or in the broader fight to eliminate all weapons of mass destruction," he said. "The cost of omission could be truly catastrophic and the risks are evident to all." In May, rivals India and Pakistan detonated nuclear devices heightening the possibility of nuclear conflict in South Asia.

To: md1derful who wrote (8339)	9/21/1998 12:01:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Chase Forecasts Latin America 1998 Growth At 2.5% Dow Jones Newswires NEW YORK -- Citing the impact of turmoil in international financial markets, Chase Securities forecast Monday that economic growth in Latin America would slow to 2.5% in 1998, from 5.3% last year. And Chase said things will get worse before improving. "Next year, the region as a whole will stagnate, propelled by economic contraction in both Brazil and Venezuela," Chase said in a report. Chase said the growth slowdown in 1998 will be most noticeable "in Brazil, where we expect real gross domestic product growth of only 0.7%, and Venezuela, where GDP is set to grow only 0.5%." Chase predicted that in 1999, the Brazilian economy will contract by 3%, while Venezuela's GDP growth will be a negative 2%.