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To: shane forbes who wrote (15181)9/21/1998 2:51:00 PM
From: patrick tang  Respond to of 25814
 
In two more Qs, we won't have to worry about fab utilization #s. Those old 0.35um fabs are obsolute - they can sit there at 0% utilization and the upturn will still be here. Just look at all the latest graphics chips e.g. Banshee, G200, TNT, Savage. Those chips need sub-0.25um for performance AND power. Even at 0.25um, those chips cannot go into OEM desktops because they need fans!

IDT got it right - writing off $140M on 0.35um Oregon fab. Yes, the Taiwanses are supposed to be at 65% capacity for their foundries in July. BUT, they only have 5% capacity at 0.25um. If they can fab 0.21um graphics, the whole newer graphic stuff will just take off. At 0.35um, they are not ready for the big show.

LSI with positive cash flow and still being able to fund their new fab is going to do REAL well when we get to sub-0.25um.

patrick




To: shane forbes who wrote (15181)9/21/1998 4:18:00 PM
From: patrick tang  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25814
 
Look at STM and TER. TER crossed 4M shares and down big, STM almost up to even now. I think funds are starting to adjust their portfolio. Somebody rotated out of TER/semi-equipment, and I think they will probably rotate into semis like STM and LSI next. I doubt they will rotate out of LSI. The big boys who wanted out are already out.

patrick