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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raptech who wrote (5751)	9/21/1998 7:03:00 PM
From: Hungry Investor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7841

Raptech, Do you think the move up today - look at SEG, QNTM, WDC, MXTR, RDRT, HTCH - was due to a change in the fundamental views on the sector as a whole, or just the analysts banging on the table on a few drive makers with a follow on in the others not receiving the hype? Scott.

To: Raptech who wrote (5751)	9/21/1998 7:39:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7841

Raptech, William: Barrons article, reprinted here for personal use only: The indicators for another battered group, disc-drive manufacturers, seemed more promising. Claudio Osario, CEO of CHS Electronics, a distributor of disc-drives, PCs, printers and components to non-U.S markets, contends he's seeing shortages of some disc-drive models. This is not the first time he's made that claim, which some might find hard to believe given the recent disarray in the drive industry. Nonetheless, Osario insists it's true, especially for three-gigabyte drives, which go into low-end personal computers. As it turns out, Ultratech's Zafiropoulo also offered encouraging words on drives. Ultratech, in addition to its chip-making gear, is a leading producer of equipment for making thin-film disc-drive recording heads. His forecast: seasonal improvement in drives in the third and fourth quarters, a dip in the first quarter of 1999, and then a real recovery starting in next year's second quarter. Michael Cannon, CEO of Maxtor, the sole drive maker to make a presentation at the conference, asserted that excess inventories largely have been cleaned up, just as the industry is entering into its seasonally strongest period. By the fourth quarter, he contends, most PC makers will have inventories about where they want them. Also optimistic is Wayne Fortun, CEO of Hutchinson Technology, which supplies suspension arms, a key component of drives. He told a sparsely attended session that drive inventories are as low as they've been in two or three years. Asked about a Montgomery analyst's estimate that Hutchinson will earn $2 a share in fiscal '99, Fortun grinned, "I think he's close." If so, it's a cheap stock. Hutchinson, which this year will lose money, last week closed at 15 1/8, down from a 52-week high of 36 1/8 .

To: Raptech who wrote (5751)	9/22/1998 12:42:00 AM
From: William Epstein	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7841

Raptech; Please define MACD and TA. I have to learn new abbreviations every day in my computer world. Sometimes, I think I have to do more work learning these than learning new manuals and software and that's enough work. With reference to fundamentals; we don't know yet but I believe I made my point several times last week that they were improving. It's simple (business school) logic. When there is a glut companies must cut inventories which negatively affect earnings. Eventually, they are cut to the bone and actually create undersupply. The market swings from supply driven to price driven and profits are restored. I figure that 2 years is enough time to teach even the idiots in that industry that inventory must be reduced. Seagate had this problem and the currency problem and the product to market introduction problem too. Slowly they are working their way out of it. Their Cheetahs are not cheap drives but they have a blowout for them, as well they should be. Last quarter they began to make an impression on earnings. Usually, currency contracts expire in 1 year so I'm guessing that's finished. They have closed some unnecessary operations and will sell off or close another soon and they are working on their product to market problem with diligence. Partial solution of even 1 problem will produce better than expected quarterly earnings so, I am looking for a better than expected earnings stream for the next year or two. There may be some ups and downs but the logic is on their side, given a competent management. PHOTOMAN/William Epstein