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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (28549)	9/21/1998 9:26:00 PM
From: robnhood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

<< Not enough FEAR???>>> You said it,, there isn't any...hence the ease of the rallies... When they drop , trading just dries up..

To: William H Huebl who wrote (28549)	9/21/1998 9:51:00 PM
From: Monty Lenard	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, Good post. I asked J. Hopkins just Friday if he had noticed that the thread had really slowed down. Scares me! :-)) Monty

To: William H Huebl who wrote (28549)	9/21/1998 10:18:00 PM
From: BubbaFred	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill - I think there is a lack of BK posts because you have been hitting it on the nose. If and when you post a bearish case, there will be lots of BK posts. Besides, all the bears are mostly in cash anyway, waiting patiently for the next opportune time. On the other hand, it also show that posters in your thread are more sophisticated than those in other threads.

To: William H Huebl who wrote (28549)	9/21/1998 10:19:00 PM
From: Andeveron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

And what is really buggin me now is that there are too few posts going on here on the BK for this market! Not enough FEAR??? There is no fear in this market. Convincing drops in the Dow are followed by powerful, roaring rallies. Day traders jump in and out with impunity and with the full knowledge that the market will surely rise...The USA is an oasis of prosperity that deflects all global turmoil. Isn't it? Will likely buy 100 CMGI October $50 calls tomorrow for the inevitable moonshot when earnings show less of a loss than expected. Sigh.

To: William H Huebl who wrote (28549)	9/21/1998 10:29:00 PM
From: Joseph G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill - the problem is - right now it's too late to buy for a two week rally, and too early for a two month rally - based on TA. Based on general world situation, and the fact that the EURO markets (with population and GDP more than US, and total market cap not much different) are down average of 28% off peak; and Japan being down comparable off the spring this year peak, UK, Canada, Australia off 26%, LatAm and Asia in toilet - IMO any uptick to DJIA 8,500 or 8,600 will be met with overwhelming selling - JMO. And, if the DJIA does not uptick above 8k much, massive selling will commence very soon anyway ... the sellers are just waiting, hopping for better prices.

To: William H Huebl who wrote (28549)	9/22/1998 9:23:00 AM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

Maybe the lack of posts is due to my being on vacation last week <g>- I haven't noticed many posts here from Jim or Bobby B lately either. Some observations: Most of the green investors I know are holding on to their losses at the present. Very few have pulled any money out of the market. They are too proud to sell, and too poor to buy. Not a bullish sign to me. The market is confounding me at the moment (as it often does). I expected the Starr Report to cause a huge selloff (especially after reading the overwhelming evidence it contained). The public just doesn't realize the magnitude of what's going to happen. Point: "But what would a full-blown U.S. impeachment process mean for the markets? Unfortunately, history lacks much precedent since the only President to go through the impeachment process was Andrew Johnson in 1868. Then, the stock market did not react much at first, but sold off later in the process. President Nixon in 1974 went through only the very beginning stages of the impeachment process, then resigned. The market, which had already peaked in early 1973, plunged after that resignation in a devastating bear market. During the initial stages of the process, though, the market had attempted to hold up after having declined for much of 1973. Thus, it is little wonder that the market did not collapse merely upon the presentation of an independent council report presenting to congress possible impeachable offenses by President Clinton. Rather, declines are likely later on if the impeachment process proves serious or if it drags out. This Starr report, by the way, is perceived by many as a report on a sex scandal. However, the actual charges by Independent Council Starr are not much different than those against President Nixon in 1974 and, in fact, are more numerous. President Nixon was charged with 3 impeachable offenses ranging from perjury to obstruction of justice to lying to the American people. Mr. Clinton is charged with exactly the same offenses, only there are 11 charges leveled by judge Starr versus Nixon's three. The U.S. Congress, then, has its work cut out for it. " You know that I don't really believe that fundamentals (or news events) can really be used to trade with. BUT, I have observed that when a news event causes the opposite reaction as I was expecting, the reaction eventually reverses hard. Therefore, (based on this observation) I am expecting a strong sell off in the near future. Regards, TW