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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bob Smith who wrote (3444)	9/22/1998 9:39:00 AM
From: Apakhabar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

Bob, To think that CSCO is going to offer .5 share for CIEN is just wishful thinking. CSCO trades over 60. As for a buyback to increase "shareholder value" I doubt CIEN even cares at this point about the stock price. They have a problem with losing contracts and declining earnings, which is a higher priority than the stock price. Having repriced their options, the stock price in the short term is of little concern to the company. Their focus, rightly, will be on the business plan. However, the bottom is near and the stock should be watched and perhaps purchased in spots. But this isn't going to be a get-rich-quick scenerio. It's a trading stock for a few months at least.

To: Bob Smith who wrote (3444)	9/22/1998 9:46:00 AM
From: gbh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12623

You see the glass "half empty. Bob, no, I see the reality of the situation. Right now, I wish the glass were only half empty. Stock buyback Great strategy, which I have posted here, would be a wise move. Has Nettles done it? No. Has he diluted our shares even more by re-pricing employee options? Yes. NEWS.. I will state again for those of you with a "clue"; PR means basically nothing right now. 4Q is already "in the bag" so to speak. Pre-announced for a small profit, or narrow loss. Very hard for news to make up for this. My guess is Nettle says "YES"...but links it to the share of CSCO's stock price..say .5 (or whatever). This way CIEN shareholders can rise with CSCO. Again, I agree with you about CIEN offering their shareholders better value by pegging there share price to a growth monster like CSCO. However, your .5 number is WAY off. Try .3. Thats a hefty premium over CIEN's current price, and probably more than CSCO is willing to pay, IMO. Will Nettles drop this low? Unlikely... To think that CSCO is going to sit and watch LU's Bell Lab's integrate DWM technology into next years networking products is quite naive. You may be right about this. But CSCO simplywill not pay what Nettles thinks CIEN is worth. Forget about a revenue comparison. CSCO has made 1 large acquistion, and that was Stratacom. CIEN would certainly qualify as large at your price of $3B+. No way they do this if its dilutive to their earnings, which it would be for over a year, given CIEN's projected PE over the next year at a buyout price of $30. CIEN is damaged goods...because it has been damaged....mainly by those who didn't want to see a powerful TLAB/CIEN. Its irrelevant to me how they were damaged. They are damaged, as is my portfolio for entering the stock too soon. So I suggest you short....for three months. But I guess you & others will be the first ones to "change your tune" when the news comes out. I am not short the stock, as I have stated openly here. But I am a realist on how long this investment will take to recover, unlike others who post here.