Berney; That's a very good report, and does not surprise me.
Early on I had a full service broker and got to know him fairly
well. Much of what you pointed out he taught me , and it's one
of the reasons they pushed the buy and hold.
Your chances go up with a 5 year horizon, and the average investor
is no smarter than the average Fund manager, ( but we all tend to think we are ).
When we go from investing to trading it's a whole another ball
game, "if we don't get clobbered at first," then we get bold and in time we will still wind up getting our hair cut. We don't really learn the tricks until after we have had a good hair cut. At least 99% of us are that way. <G>
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Your statistics are very interesting, how did you get them ?
I would like to see them broken down , in even 6 month segments
going back say 10 years. It would better show the odds in short
term trading.
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Wall street is in the business of selling stocks, so most indexes
are enhanced over time. The major indexes almost always (99.9%) of
the time are going to out do the real market, laggards are dropped
out, and runners brought in. In the last 3 years many people have
caught onto that so they buy the index. The more that happens
the more Mo Mo..as the major index the S&P 500 is weighted by
market cap. Every body gets to doing the new dance, and they
are doing the Mo Mo, ( momentum ) and in the large caps as you
put you right foot left , then left foot right, and you Mo Mo.
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The index funds , dance between the stocks, and the futures,
to stay in step. As they put their right foot left, and their
left foot right and do a big dip, then kick their feet right
back and take a big jump, and we are all doing the Mo Mo.
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Dipping and jumping with the big caps, then there is the jitterbugs
always a gang of the newest fad on the market, with tulips in their
hair dancing a dance all their own, right now they are called the
internuts, youngsters with a lot of energy, doing flips, and spins
sometimes with the music, sometimes out of step, if any of them get
big enough ( 70 B market cap or more ) then they will join the Mo Mo gang. So far CSCO has made it out of that pack.
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Beyond all this, economy be dammed OIL runs the World, just watch
OIL, the more it cost the tougher times will get down the road
Don't look at oil just Dollar wise look at what it cost the rest
of the world, patch up Asia all you want with loans , if they
can't afford oil it won't last.
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Oil Oil Oil, high oil slow growth, cheap oil fast growth,
Give me an Oil substitute that's "cheaper" than the real thing,
and f**k the Big oil companies and their cartels.
Thing is I believe we can do it with solar power but
someone is keeping the wraps on the latest technology.
What kind of "solar cell" powered up the fly by for photos
of Pluto ? it was not done on batteries.
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Now OFF TOPIC
Man talk about changing the world, and shaking up the status
quo, a super duper Solar Cell could kill the strangle hold
Oil and utility companies have on people.
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What abut the
The PAS-5 satellite, built by Hughes Space and Communications Company, it uses dual-junction gallium arsenide solar cells to convert the sun's rays into 10 kilowatts of power at a substantial increase over the 4.8 kilowatts provided by a standard HS 601 satellite.
PAS-5's 10 kilowatts will provide the power necessary to broadcast direct-to-home and other television services for 15 years.
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The effecicy of these solar cell are getting better, I think now
it's over 21% of the suns energy can be converted into electricity,
& hey sun light is free in most places., what do you do at night ?
"it's no problem to store the energy" if you don't want to use
batteries make an excess during the day to load any thing you
want up, ( compressed air , or anything ) then let the same
moter you used to create the load ,use the load later and run as a generator when you need it.
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Man would I love to live to see the world not so dependent on oil.
What a change that will make, sh*t some governments might just
fade away..what the heck would so many big shots do if no one needed
their oil, it sure will shake up the world, and it's coming,
I don't know how soon , or how hard the oil companies will fight
it but it will happen.
If I was a young fellow I would want to learn how "grow" the
crystal solar cells. This just can't be all that hard.
Jim
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