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To: Gottfried who wrote (24549)	9/22/1998 11:59:00 PM
From: Joe S Pack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

GM, Thanks for the number. One more observation based on your numbers, it looks like 1998 may be the worst year since 1991 as for total btb number for the entire year. If we look at the first 8 months of btb again 1998 looks like the lowest so far. Is there any change in computing btb values since 1991? Or is there a change since last year? Of course btb is not the end of the story but it still gives a decent visibility for this sector. -Karun

To: Gottfried who wrote (24549)	9/23/1998 6:38:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Samsung sees DRAM Parity in first half of 1999 INTERVIEW-Samsung sees chip oversupply easing By Yoo Choon-sik SEOUL, Sept 23 (Reuters) - The years-old global memory chip oversupply will draw to an end by the second half of next year, helped by a massive shake-up in the industry now under way, a Samsung Electronics Co <05930.KS> executive said on Wednesday. That will help stabilise prices and therefore help the world's largest memory chip maker record a moderate sales growth in the semiconductor sector, Samsung's director of semiconductor marketing Chung Eui-yong said in an interview with Reuters. "It is certain the memory chip supply and demand would be largely balanced in the first half next year and the oversupply will then be reversed in the second half," Chung said. Years of sliding memory chip prices have incurred huge losses at the world's major semiconductor makers, forcing some to quit the market or scale down factory operations. He said Samsung's sales of semiconductors and thin-film transistor liquid crystal displays (TFT-LCDs) were expected to grow by about 10 percent in 1999 after remaining at around last year's level this year. "Our sales of memory chips are expected to grow by about five percent (in 1999) and LSI circuits by 30 percent and LCDs by 20 percent," Chung said. "Overall, our sales in the semiconductor sector would likely grow by about 10 percent." In calendar 1997, Samsung's sales in the semiconductor sector stood at $6.56 billion, down from $6.96 billion in 1996, company data showed. He said the consolidation in the chipmaking industry would help slow down the growth in supply to around 60 percent next year from a 75 percent growth this year. Chung said Samsung's regular production suspensions to reduce its memory chip output had been a success, contributing to stabilising the world's chip prices. He said the unit price for 64-megabit dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chips was now stable at around $8.5, compared with around $15 early this year. Chung said the price should remain at the current level or fall by about $1 next year. Samsung has been suspending memory chip lines for about a week every month since June in an attempt to ease the global oversupply. Other South Korean makers have followed suit. Chung said such production cuts might end by October when he said the world chip oversupply situation would end, mostly due to seasonal factors. The global memory chip demand usually picks up in the quarter to December every year when the U.S. personal computer sales grow sharply. He did not say whether the company would resume such production suspensions next year. Chung said the proposed merger between South Korea's two other chipmakers would form another factor accelerating the easing of the global chip overcapacity, at least in the short run. LG Semicon Co <29890.KS> and Hyundai Electronics Industries Co <00660.KS>, both among the world's top 10 dynamic random access memory (DRAM) makers, have agreed in principle on a merger. The merged company would have a capacity similar to or bigger than Samsung's. But Chung said it would take a lot of time for the merged company to finish integrating their production lines, which currently use different technologies. "The merger and the subsequent emergence of a big maker could affect our marketing activities but I think it will help accelerate the consolidation in the global chipmaking capacity," said Chung.