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To: Alex who wrote (19557)	9/23/1998 8:36:00 AM
From: Enigma	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116762

Alex - do you have a good site for the CRB Index - showing it against more than one moving average? It appears to have very quietly made a bounce off its recent bottom - when it penetrated the 200 mark - the lowest point in over 20 years. Could it be that this index is now looking beyond deflation towards reflation, and that many of us on this thread are focusing too much on deflation - which is real, but soon to be overtaken by monetary inflation.. As an aside, all these 'lows' i.e. CRB, Gold, etc., are not inflation adjusted - so when we talk about gold testing its multi year lows in constant dollars the picture must be even more bleak - any charts on gold, etc., adjusted for inflation? Where is Bobby Beara? E

To: Alex who wrote (19557)	9/23/1998 6:05:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116762

Euro concerns resurface amid global turmoil 10:18 a.m. Sep 23, 1998 Eastern By Noah Barkin LONDON, Sept 23 (Reuters) - On the face of it, the outlook for Europe's single currency project has never been rosier. In the tide of financial turmoil that has washed over countries from East Asia to Latin America, Europe's economy has remained relatively untouched. As the dollar's safe-haven status has been eroded on concerns over U.S. growth prospects and President Bill Clinton's future, foreign exchange traders have bought the German mark -- a de facto vote of confidence in Europe and its future euro currency. And recent European Commission figures reveal that even Europe's euro-sceptic populations seem to be warming to the idea of abandoning their respective currencies in favour of the euro. But beneath this thin veneer of optimism lie many of the worrisome questions that have plagued the project for years -- questions which economists say are once again surfacing after several months of fixation on turbulent global financial markets. ''Problems in emerging markets have, until now, diverted attention from what is going on in Europe,'' said David Marsh, European strategist for Robert Fleming. Marsh and other analysts cited rate convergence as a prominent concern. Also bubbling under the surface, however, are worries about European fiscal consolidation, turbulent global markets and European Central Bank dynamics. This week, officials expressed concern about the pace of European interest rate convergence and Europe's efforts to consolidate budgets. ECB President Wim Duisenberg, while taking pains to reassure the European Parliament that convergence was on track, conceded on Tuesday that the process would prove ''rather forced'' and ''quick.'' And IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus, in an interview with French daily Le Figaro on Wednesday, said Europe must do more to consolidate its budgets, highlighting the risk that the current fiscal approach posed for the convergence process. ''I think that the effort towards budget consolidation in 1998 and 1999 has been too timid, pretty much everywhere in Europe,'' Camdessus said. ''This questionable approach could make the process harder of getting interest rates to converge at a low level.'' Although it hasn't had a significant impact on European growth, the turmoil in emerging markets has raised questions about how the euro zone would cope with an external shock. ''The issue of how Europe's economies will react to exogenous events has been taken lightly,'' said Thomas Mayer, managing director and senior economist at Goldman Sachs. ''External shocks, such as the the emerging markets turmoil, will inevitably affect some economies in Europe more than others.'' Investment bank Morgan Stanley Dean Witter recently downgraded its 1999 growth forecasts for the euro zone to 2.2 percent from 2.7 percent. But individual country revisions varied widely, with Austrian growth slashed by 0.9 percentage points due to its trade exposure to Central and Eastern Europe, and Italian and Finnish growth forecasts trimmed by a comparatively small 0.4 percentage points. Exposure differentials such as these could complicate the already difficult process of arriving at a consensus on rates within the ECB governing council. Mayer views the ongoing divergence within Europe -- where Irish rates are almost three percentage points above those in Germany and France -- as a clear sign that disagreement already exists within the council. ''I can't see any reasonable arguments for waiting this long and shocking the system with late moves to converge,'' he said. ''The only conclusion you can draw is that some of these countries view EMU as bad for their economies.'' ((London Treasury Desk, +44-171-542 8974)) Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited