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To: donald sew who wrote (53666)	9/23/1998 5:13:00 PM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

Donald; RE:" extent... " ...powerful rally, sweeping all sectors -- now +700 SPX basis points from Monday's low, a virtual +7% increase in U.S. equity values; busting up through all resistance levels, including critical SPX 1057.1, the 200d EMA, the 50d EMA, towards next target of SPX 1073.9 on my chart, Donald. >> The intermediate-term DownTrend is no longer intact << As much of this buying appears to be speculation on Fed reducing the cost of kapital, there is now a major political factor for us to consider, in addition to fundamental earnings growth: "no action" next week would almost certainly trigger a massive sell-off. Man, I'm glad I was not short; my core portfolio holdings gained +6% today. Although buying is obviously over-exuberant, Donald - we are getting big time kapital inflows to U.S. equities, with pretty good breadth. >> Would not want to be long if there is no Fed action; jesus ! -Steve

To: donald sew who wrote (53666)	9/23/1998 5:45:00 PM
From: Andeveron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

>> What happens if he does not raise rates specificly on TUE. I strongly believe that a rate decrease on TUE, not later, is now being priced into the market. << Yes, the bulls are eagerly interpreting today's Greenspan talk as a guaranteed rate cut for next week. I don't see it happening since everyone is ignoring Greenspan's wag that the overseas contagion has only touched the fringes of the U.S. economy and not the core. He also spoke of reacting sooner to problems in the global theatre, but to the FOMC, sooner may be another 2 months and not necessarily next week. I applaud the powerful rally however, it makes a strong showing that speculative froth (from longs and shorts) is still rampant as evidenced by the huge run-ups in YHOO and AMZN. This bull market will continue to buy dips.

To: donald sew who wrote (53666)	9/23/1998 6:57:00 PM
From: dennis michael patterson	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 58727

FAVORS tonight: Jerry Favors Analysis - Wednesday, September 23, 1998 8 p.m. Last evening we stated that given the Trin-5 reading above 6.00 the odds were high that we would see some further rally. As we stated normally the only time an extreme Trin-5 reading above 6.00 will not lead to some sort of rally is if you are in the midst of a crash or mini-crash. So unless the Dow was beginning a crash immediately the Dow should see some sort of rally in this time frame. The Dow closed up 257 points today at 8154.41. As we stated the Trin-5 is one of our favorite short term indicators. It is simply a 5 day moving sum of the closing trading index readings. Interestingly the Trin-5 closed at 6.22,which is still a strong oversold reading. But the takeaway value tomorrow is 1.79,so unless the Dow closes down very strongly along with a closing Trading Index reading greater than 1.79 the Trin -5 will begin moving lower,out of oversold territory. It should now be clear whether the Bradley forecast or the short term cycles was correct in this time frame. The Bradley called for a low near September 21 plus or minus 2 days and a rally into September 28 plus or minus 2 days. The Dow fell 391 points on a print basis from last week's highs,reaching a print low of 7711.05 on September 21 exactly. We have since rallied 449 points from that low. The Bradley suggests we should see a high near Monday September 28 plus or minus 2 days. From there the Bradley turns straight down until late October,in a move which should prove every bit as severe as that from the July highs to the September 1st low print low of 7400. The Top-to-Top Count discussed last evening suggests we should see a top between September 25 and October 6. We have to use other tools to pinpoint the most likely date for the high due in that time frame. However it is unlikely the top will occur before September 25,when the Top-to-Top Count begins. No matter which day marks the actual high the worst part of the next decline should not begin until after that Top-to-Top Count expires on October 6. That is the actual high could occur well before October 6,but the decline will pick up steam after October 6. The Bradley target of September 28 plus or minus 2 days seems most likely. We stated that any rally above 8160 intraday would give an upside projection of 8295 plus or minus 91 points intraday for the Dow. The Dow did exceed 8160 intraday today. The actual projection given today calls for 8345 plus or minus 96 points intraday. From here on any decline below 7653 intraday and 7711 on a print basis will suggest the top is in. We frankly do not expect that to happen in the next couple of days,because of the Top-to-Top Count suggesting the high should not occur until September 25 at the earliest. However if the Dow breaks 7653 intraday anytime from here on and we are not already short we want all subscribers to move to 50% short with a stop of any close above 7953. If the Dow breaks 7400 and we are not 100% short we will move to 100% short. Alternatively we want to let this rally run its course and try to get short as close to the highs as we can get over the next few days. Since the top is unlikely before Friday at the earliest we will take no new action tomorrow.