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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (4512)	9/23/1998 9:40:00 PM
From: SE	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 44573

This is interesting, albeit maybe completely worthless in terms of any analysis, but I will share it anyway. We advertise to hire people about once a year. We usually need one maybe two people depending upon the circumstances. About two years ago we placed our ad and got almost zero in response. In fact the responses we got were painfully unqualified for the position. The person we hired we had to let go after it was clear there was not a fit with that person's abilities. We placed an ad about two to three weeks ago and got more than a normal number of responses. In addition the responses we received were solid candidates....better than normal. What does this mean? Simple conjecture on my part is that two years ago the business climate was strong and people were not available for hire. This is either because they were not out of work or did not see any need to change jobs. They were happy with the compensation, amount of raises etc....Now however, the candidates are present and all of them are currently working somewhere else. Are they that unhappy with their compensation? Amount of raise? Job benefits? Potential job security? What? I think that it is possible that as a recession begins and a slow down in the business cycle is underway that the workforce understands what is going on. Maybe not from a specific standpoint, but from a feel from the businesses where they work. Perhaps this indicates that there are troubled times ahead. Maybe, maybe not? . . . . In addition, it appears to me from reading SI and listening to others that the market is back in full bull mode. Personally, I could care less which way it goes from an investment standpoint as I simply day trade having been taught this from the best. So bulls, don't take this as a challenge, but I think that perhaps the top is near and all the bull talk should be heeded as a potential warning. The downside may be nearer than we think. For the longest time it seems everyone was on the page of the big hit....now it appears the correction is over. Are we entering the tulip phase? Does a tulip phase have to take place at a new high? I am inclined to think that the tulip phase will have real hurt written all over it if it is happening now after what appears to have been a significant correction. Has there been any significant pain to individual's during this correction that has caused them to take action in a stampede type fashion? I haven't seen it. The situation in the world has not changed. An interest rate cut cannot undo the fact the earnings are being cut and PE's are still quite high. I think we are being set up for a big downfall. I could and probably am quite wrong in my thinking, but hey, what the heck. I don't see roses out there. I applaud those that were bullish the past couple of weeks. They have made out like bandits. When does the other shoe drop?.......I don't think it has yet. I trust the bulls are adequately hedged..... -Scott