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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (6637)	9/24/1998 8:37:00 AM
From: Bosco	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

G'day all - dear Zeev, you sez " I do not think that Greenspan is going to rush to lower rate..." I'd agree with that and your reasonings, especially with the strength of the domestic economies only to show minor signs of slowing, and certainly, incidental or by design, Chairman Al probably doesn't want to see any severe inflation in the equity markets, 9K or even 10K! However, the possibility of a rate cut even if the market doesn't break below the 7K barrier is there, if one is to consider 1) the US has to assert the leadership role [afterall, hoping Japan to clean up its act is fast becoming the moral equivalence of "Waiting for Godot."] 2) By lowering the US rate, it may or may not cause greater harm to our neighbor to the north. I mean, Canada can in turn lower its rate [it has raised it to support the loonies.] I guess this is the conspiracy theory of a coordinated rate cut <G>. Having said that, definitely, some people have already had excessive expectations. I was watching NBR last night. This guy [from Value Line?] claimed that there is a good possibility for the Fed to ease by 50 basis points. To say the least, even if the Fed is to ease, this is simply out of character. 25, maybe. best, Bosco

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (6637)	9/24/1998 2:27:00 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 9980

Good post.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (6637)	9/24/1998 10:04:00 PM
From: Mark Bartlett	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

Zev, Been a while ... << I think he is afraid to use lowering interest rates prematurely so as not to get caught in a liquidity trap as Japan had been. >> IMO you are dead on here .... unless the hedge funds really start to unravel, I think AG will likely not lower rates in the short term .... until things are really getting grim - it did nothing for Japan - and will do less for the US ... just postpone the inevitable. Best to you, MB