To: XOsDaWAY2GO who wrote (53705 ) 9/24/1998 8:46:00 AM From: donald sew Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 58727
INDEX UPDATE ------------------------ The Asian markets were up extremely strong last night, and Europe was also flying earlier in the morning, so the S&P FUTURES are up strong - RIGHT???? WRONG - The futures are flat/down slightly and Europe has pulled back substantially off their highs. The British market(FTSE), for example was up 108 points and came down only up 8 points. Of course, the futures could change since it is, but it is giving the hint that the market may not be up as strong as many originally thought. Yesterday, I had mentioned that the next important resistance is at 8350, but also felt that we may just remain relatively flat (plus or minus 100 points) until the FOMC meeting, next TUE. Just on a statistical basis, when a run is already in progress and there is a huge day, the following day is normally flat. I just want to make sense of the market. The reason why the FED is reducing rates is that the FED feels the the U.S. is not an oasis and that the international economic problems will/has effected the U.S. Thats not good, and implies that there is a problem whith negativity in the future. What it does imply is that the FED is on the topic and will do what they can to mininize the effect and help fix the problem. There will be a pullback in OCT, definitely, but it may not be as negative as most of the bears think, as I said yesterday. I feel that the pullback will be at least 50% of this runup(thats not definite since it could be less, but not alot less). On a technical basis I am not a bear, since I do see higher highs and higher lows, but do not see any strong technical signs that we have reversed to an uptrend as we had it during JAN/MAR. My technicals are still saying that we are a trading range and that the range is getting larger or shifting slightly to the upside. Now, Im hearing an analys on CNBC that if there is not at least a .50% reduction then the market will sell off. This analyst is saying that we need at least .75%. This is only one analyst, of course, but am starting to hear that more and more. I also believe that the FED will cut rates on TUE, but what if they don't or only reduce it by .25%. Just want to make sense of this market, in light of all the bearish talk before and bullish talk now. When the market was lower I was still calling for a trading range on a technical basis. On a subjective basis, I am still negative to the market since I am sensing a reoccurance of the bubble. You know that dump theory I have about the RUBBERBAND/GUITAR STRING effect. Seeya