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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (28727)	9/24/1998 8:30:00 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill Thank you for providing such excellent calls regarding this bear market rally / end of bear market turnaround?. VGY is now at 399.45 20 ma = 386 going horizontal and might turn up next 1-2 days 50 ma = 419 200 ma= 460 It appears to me that the naz has led the rise up to past support levels ( 1766-1768 ) which should now present resistance.The ability for naz to fight thru resistance could be great clue about the overall strength of rally vs turnaround. JMHO The S&P 500 looks to have overshot past support at 1055 (close at 1066)Probably way too fast and market needs some congestion pattern to worry us with.Break out from this pattern will be great indicator also. Most surprised to see this rally in the middle of preannouncement time period shows great strength of stealth bull market perhaps. My big question is time duration for vgy to bottom: 94 took 10 months with a nasty triple bottom 96 took 2 months with fast dip only 97 took 2 months with weak dip only Stochastics indicate vgy has never been sold oversold - could this be a big time bear market trap driven by interest rate cuts much more than corporate earnings.When everything else yields nothing - americans with money will look to Mr. Market for addictive returns ( 6-8%)GGGGG Suspect you have some overlays from past bear traps would greatly appreciate any analysis or downloads. In between, thank you for helping this position trader who buys on the dips make it thru dark hours. Humbly to the great swami Bob P.S. Past posts indicates you are looking at one of my favorites: AMAT Do you have a strategy in place? (post over a month ago indicated below 26 is good - 23 must be better right ? ).

To: William H Huebl who wrote (28727)	9/24/1998 8:46:00 AM
From: Barbara Barry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, If you are feeling a little smug right now....you've earned it!Great call,but it was a little scary getting there. <G>I chickened out holding 530 calls. :( I know how well you can turn on a dime and I think you will get a chance before 9000.IMHO. This is not a strong enough rally at the moment to convince me of new highs.I am using a FA/TA combo right now to prepare for October,along with my little "psych" indidicators.A straddle might work and I am keeping a watch on the 480/490 puts for next week.BWDIk???Congrats on the call! Regards, Barbara

To: William H Huebl who wrote (28727)	9/24/1998 9:35:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, Just trying to make some sense of this market. As for today, the market could easily close to the upside, but it may not be as high as some BULLs expect. seeya >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> INDEX UPDATE ------------------------ The Asian markets were up extremely strong last night, and Europe was also flying earlier in the morning, so the S&P FUTURES are up strong - RIGHT???? WRONG - The futures are flat/down slightly and Europe has pulled back substantially off their highs. The British market(FTSE), for example was up 108 points and came down only up 8 points. Of course, the futures could change since it is, but it is giving the hint that the market may not be up as strong as many originally thought. Yesterday, I had mentioned that the next important resistance is at 8350, but also felt that we may just remain relatively flat (plus or minus 100 points) until the FOMC meeting, next TUE. Just on a statistical basis, when a run is already in progress and there is a huge day, the following day is normally flat. I just want to make sense of the market. The reason why the FED is reducing rates is that the FED feels the the U.S. is not an oasis and that the international economic problems will/has effected the U.S. Thats not good, and implies that there is a problem whith negativity in the future. What it does imply is that the FED is on the topic and will do what they can to mininize the effect and help fix the problem. There will be a pullback in OCT, definitely, but it may not be as negative as most of the bears think, as I said yesterday. I feel that the pullback will be at least 50% of this runup(thats not definite since it could be less, but not alot less). On a technical basis I am not a bear, since I do see higher highs and higher lows, but do not see any strong technical signs that we have reversed to an uptrend as we had it during JAN/MAR. My technicals are still saying that we are a trading range and that the range is getting larger or shifting slightly to the upside. Now, Im hearing an analys on CNBC that if there is not at least a .50% reduction then the market will sell off. This analyst is saying that we need at least .75%. This is only one analyst, of course, but am starting to hear that more and more. I also believe that the FED will cut rates on TUE, but what if they don't or only reduce it by .25%. Just want to make sense of this market, in light of all the bearish talk before and bullish talk now. When the market was lower I was still calling for a trading range on a technical basis. On a subjective basis, I am still negative to the market since I am sensing a reoccurance of the bubble. You know that dump theory I have about the RUBBERBAND/GUITAR STRING effect. <<<<<<<<<<<< Seeya