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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (6650)9/24/1998 12:13:00 PM
From: DMaA  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9980
 
Mr. Greenspan seems enamored with the new financial technologies. It scares the begeebers out of me.

From Mr. Greenspan's speech yesterday:

As I have indicated in earlier presentations, the dramatic advances in computer and telecommunications technologies over the last decade have fostered a marked increase in the degree of sophistication of financial products. A vast new array of debt, equity and hybrid instruments, as well as newly crafted derivative products have fostered an unbundling of risks, which, in turn, has enabled investors to optimize (as they see it) their portfolios of financial assets. This has engendered a set of market prices and interest rates that have guided business organizations increasingly toward producing those capital investments that offer the highest long-term rates of return, that is, those investments that most closely align themselves with the prospective value preferences of consumers. This process has effectively directed scarce savings into our most potentially valuable productive capital assets. The result, especially in the United States, where financial innovations are most advanced, has been an evident acceleration in productivity and standards of living, and, owing to the financial sector's increased contribution to the process, a greater share of national income earned by it over the past decade.

The new financial innovations, which have spread at a quickened pace, have facilitated a rapid expansion of cross-border investment and trade, and almost surely, as a consequence, a significant increase in standards of living for those nations that have chosen to participate in what can appropriately be called our new international financial system. The system is new in the sense that its dynamics appear somewhat more accelerated relative to the international financial structure of, say, fifteen or twenty years ago. Owing to the newer technologies, market prices have become more sensitively tuned to subtle changes in preferences and, hence, react to those changes far faster than in previous generations. The system is productive of increased standards of living and more sensitive to capital misuse. It is a system more calibrated than before to not only reward innovation but also to discipline the mistakes of private investment or public policy.


Juxtapose that with this from the WSJ story on the Long-Term Capital debacle:

In its brief existence as a highflying hedge fund, Long-Term Capital -- with the help of two Nobel-laureate partners -- made a name for itself with its complex, billion-dollar bets on the difference between interest rates on various bonds.
...
Like many so-called "quant" funds, which use computer models and highly complicated quantitative trading strategies, Long-Term Capital is highly secretive about its operations, even with investors. That lack of "transparency" has also made some hedge-fund investors wary.
...
Long-Term's situation was so dire that if the bailout plan hadn't been sealed Wednesday night, the hedge fund wouldn't have been able to meet margin calls Thursday, people familiar with their situation say.
...
One of the hotly debated issues at the meeting was whether a collapse of Long-Term Capital would put the entire financial system at risk. Salomon Smith Barney's Mr. Dimon argued that while there is no way of knowing the extent of the risks posed by the situation, why take the chance?


Are we sitting on a time bomb?



To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (6650)9/24/1998 1:05:00 PM
From: RagTimeBand  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 9980
 
Hi Henry

I'm very glad you take the time to post on SI.

You said:
>>FWIW I don't think there is a major risk of a significant recession in the US. A slowdown yes, and that in and of itself is enough concern for the emerging markets.<<

I was wondering if you've factored in the effects of the upcoming Y2K situation?

Regards - Emory