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Gold/Mining/Energy : At a bottom now for gold? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ahhaha who wrote (1709)	9/24/1998 10:08:00 PM
From: Bobby Yellin	Respond to of 1911

guess what..just loved your last post..what kind of leverage 50 to one..I think the great minds figured that russia wouldn't be allowed to meltdown and I think that meltdown has created terror in financial types counting on taxpayers' money being used to make them wealthier.. gold might be getting more attractive for that reason rather than the rumor of a big short squeeze ps don't agree with your comments that you posted to me. If I can think of a concise comment or two..will post..otherwise I will just be rehashing my former post which gets very boring ps: you might also want to join this thread exchange2000.com ..I think you will enjoy it and probably will contribute some provocative and original thoughts. bobby

To: ahhaha who wrote (1709)	9/25/1998 7:34:00 AM
From: Bobby Yellin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1911

biz.yahoo.com wonder what this will do to NYC real estate bubble..more importantly wonder what this will do to the psychology of Wall street people as what "comes around goes around" and now that it is coming around the glasses will no longer be rosey but tinted a bit black?

To: ahhaha who wrote (1709)	9/25/1998 1:01:00 PM
From: Ray Hughes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1911

ahaha: Long Term Capital Management epitomizes the point I made about theory versus the actual workings one finds when one gets down to the micro. Hedge funds are hedged, right? The human animal will give in to greed or, if not greed, expediency, either of which lead to mistakes that theory says will not happen. Sure, the Fed can't afford a credit crunch. But what happens if a scared populous pulls in on consumption and saves that exploding money supply. Low rates and low-to-no growth. What if corporate managers conclude that there are excess risks and rein in capital spending? What if thousands of about to be laid off securities brokers, analysts, corp. fin. types and excess lawyers stop big time spending? The Fed can't afford a credit crunch but Western consumers could create the dreaded consumption decline by zipping up the purse and creating at least pockets of recession. Where would the export market be that is needed to pull Asia out of the mire? What if the Japanese collective subconcious will decides it can't win the economic war through success, but by pulling down the US with it? What if some bozo at a major money center bank has lost many billions, creating a domino panic among the big institutions? Remember, one guy named Nick (usta work with him at Capels) pulled down London's most prestigious merchant bank all by himself. I can tell you from working 30+ years in Wall Street that there are thousands of Nicks out there, playing out their own get-rick-quick schemes, that could be unraveling today. There are too many exogenous variables that can blow theory - yours and mine - totally out of the water, including the very big world outside the USA and the Fed. Deflation/inflation? I think the only safe bet is that the world's financial mechanism is too shaky today to withstand much turmoil. We will likely be surprised by totally unexpected exogenous events and that few predictions will be very correct when the dust has settled. RH

To: ahhaha who wrote (1709)	9/26/1998 7:44:00 AM
From: Bobby Yellin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1911

I assuming that the last fiasco had to do with a basic assumption that was flawed and it doesn't matter what the model was..the groundwork wasn't there. the assumption was the supreme confidence that the western governments wouldn't let Russia meltdown..that there would always be a bailout down the road. What an earthquake that was and the ripples have just started..wonder what kind of adjustments are going to be made in the surviving hedge funds.. With that meltdown knees have begun to wobble big time.. With the Japanese apparently not prepared for y2000 transparency won't even have to be an issue..nobody will be able to make sense of all the random bits and pieces.. My basic disagreement with you reminds me of a song.."the hipbone's connected to the thigh bone,the thigh bones connected to the ..etc since the big players are globally spreadout now..(or sprawled out).. one has to view the world as the body..but every limb seems to be for itself and not for the whole..it is going to be interesting to watch everybody scramble..