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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (67359)	9/25/1998 2:33:00 AM
From: Jim Bautch	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 176387

LT, I've been reading your post for some time and have come to the realization that you are one of the select few on this board who have half a clue about the markets and DELL, specifically. After reading a few hundred posts on the "sacred" DELL thread I have awakened to the fact that this is the most obnoxious, ridiculous, and blind following of the masses that I have ever witnessed. Now, you DELL longs don't get me wrong, I have gone long on DELL just about as much as I have shorted it, but I watch this thing like a hawk (Both long and short). LT is the best thing that could happen to this thread, as I believe he is much closer to making a killing on this stock than anyone who dares enter this security at its current price without a disciplined exit point. I believe the company has an excellent model (the best), but what most fail to realize is that it takes much more than a good model to sell a commodity. CPQ, HWP, GTW, and IBM are breathing down DELL's neck, and have much greater ability to attack DELL than one would care to believe. DELL's more difficult year to year comparisons, it's valuation, and the overall weak conditions of the world economy will make it much more difficult for DELL to continue its past growth rate. I remember that about two and one-half years ago you could buy DELL, GTW, and CPQ for a P/E of less than 10. The only difference b/w now and then, is that PC sales growth as an industry has fallen from 25-30% to approximately 11%. Since DELL was growing just as fast a rate back then, I ask "Where's the current value???". What is DELL going to do with all the new and planned manufacturing capacity when the entire industry goes to hell?? Reminds me a lot of MU a few years back (yeah, I know, there are a lot of differences b/w the two, but hopefully you'll get the picture). How 'bout reading post #67331 for more info. regarding overvaluation??? BTW, I agree with LT that things won't start getting ugly for DELL until Q1 of 1999. Sure, this quarter should be great, and the fourth will probably follow, but there is going to be a point where the insatiable demand for commodities like PC's will slow. With greater manufacturing capabilities from all the biggest PC makers, supply will inevitably exceed demand. Not a pretty picture for those that are long on a stock with a P/E of 60 plus. Remember, the market is always at least a few months ahead of any signs of trouble. FWIW, I would suggest thinking twice before buying on the dips. Good trading/investing, Tico

To: Boplicity who wrote (67359)	9/25/1998 9:14:00 AM
From: Mohan Marette	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

<--OT-->Mind over Matter. You are not worried are you????? If you are check this out,hope it'll be of some consolation. =============================================== NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- August was the first month in eight years that investors redeemed shares in U.S. stock mutual funds. So is that sufficient to spook a growth fund manager? No, says Jeff New, who manages Van Kampen's Enterprise Growth Fund (ACENX). While many investors started heading for the exits when the U.S. market posted steep declines recently, New stuck to his philosophy of mind over market. Last month, there was an outflow of $5.4 billion from equity funds, according to Trim Tabs, a California-based research firm. As a percentage of assets held in equity funds, which totaled about $2.8 trillion at the end of July, that figure is relatively insignificant, says Carl Wittnebert, director of research at Trim Tabs. "What that number says is that August was the first month in which investors stopped putting large amounts of new money into equity funds," Wittnebert said. Investors infused an average of $20.8 billion a month into funds between January and July. New at Van Kampen offers some basic advice that investors might heed, especially in light of reports that hedge fund losses are endangering large financial institutions aroun the world. "Selling when the market drops is usually an emotional decision, and emotional decisions are usually wrong in the investment world," New says. "The most common mistake is that people get scared out of the market," he says. Investors still believe in equities While some portfolio managers have to sell stocks to meet redemptions, which could cause further market declines, New says he believes individual investors are acting differently these days. For the past couple of years, it's been a sound strategy to use a decline in price as a buying opportunity, New says. Also, what he calls "money on automatic pilot," such as 401k plans and other regular cash infusions, have helped support the market and cushion declines. Individual investors are convinced, he says, that long-term the stock market is still the best investment vehicle for generating money to pay for college and retirement.. cbs.marketwatch.com