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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jim Bautch who wrote (67361)9/25/1998 2:44:00 AM
From: Lester Fong  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 176387
 
Awesome article in Sept 21, 1998 Informationweek magazine.

techweb.com

September 21, 1998, Issue: 701
Section: Hardware

Dell Stakes Success On Build-To-Order Strategy
Jennifer Mateyaschuk

After 18 quarters of revenue growth, with quarterly increases
topping 40% and profits that more than tripled from 1995 to
1997, Dell Computer seems unstoppable. But can this ambitious
PC vendor keep grabbing market share from competitors such as
Compaq, Hewlett-Packard, and IBM?

Dell's success is attributable to its direct sales structure, in which
the company does its own sales, cutting out the resellers,
distributors, and third-party manufacturers that frequently get
between PC makers and their customers. The return on this
model has been high customer praise for Dell's Internet business,
customer-service strategy, and build-to-order PC model.

In a recent purchase of PCs and servers, Sprint found that "Dell
was the only build-to-order manufacturer with solid, dependable,
and interchangeable parts," says Lorin Olsen, senior manager of
enterprise network services for the telecommunications
company, which already has more than 30,000 Dell machines.

Analysts agree that Dell's business model is responsible for its
success. "Dell's business model is what most suppliers are trying
to achieve," says Nimisha Patel, a senior analyst for the
Aberdeen Group. "PCs are all somewhat the same. It's the
business model and the ability to satisfy customers that can
determine success."

Dell's Internet business jumped from about $1 million a day to
$6 million a day in the last 18 months. Online purchases keep
costs down and customers satisfied, Dell says.

Dell has two types of Internet customers. The first is the
transactional consumer and small business, which tend to order
individual products. The second is large companies that use
Dell's Premier Page initiative to order parts, machines configured
to their specifications, updates, and customer service. They can
track orders to see where they are in the process.

For example, Shell Oil Corp., has its own customized Web page
that contains a purchase program with which employees can
order machines configured to Shell's specifications. Sprint, too,
has a Premier Web Page, but uses it for information only; it buys
equipment through a sales rep.

"The majority of our Internet customers are from transactional
oriented consumers and small businesses," says Kevin Rollins,
Dell's vice chairman. However, only about one-quarter of Dell's
total business is in that sector; larger companies and institutions
make up the rest. Dell plans to derive half of its business from
the Web in the next five years by providing dedicated salespeople
to customers and by designing custom Web sites.

Tech support over the Internet has been particularly successful
for Dell, with only 20% of its tech support requiring an on-site
technician. "These problems can be addressed via the Net,
leaving an opportunity for us to reduce costs," says Ro Parra,
VP of America's sales and Dell services strategy.

Dell receives more than 40,000 E-mails for service and support
each month. It averages five Web-site visits for every phone
call-at a savings of $8 for every customer who uses the Web
instead of the phone.

Simultaneously, customers are satisfied with Dell's service. Dell
got top ratings in Technology Business Research's survey of 243
U.S. technology managers, outranking IBM, HP, and Compaq in
customer satisfaction.

Manufacturing Efficiency

Dell's manufacturing and distribution processes also keep costs
down. The build-to-order approach resulted in a return on
investment of 217% last quarter and let Dell hold inventory to an
eight-day average.

Kmart Corp. this summer bought a "point and purchase" system
running on Dell OptiPlex PCs and PowerEdge servers to let
customers browse and place orders. "The kiosks needed a
specific application for Kmart customers," says Parra. "Most
vendors would have to take the box off the assembly line, unbox
it, put in the requirements, and then ship it." But Dell configured
the systems as they rolled down the line, so when they got to the
stores, they were up and running, says Parra.

Dell's direct sales model also leads to efficiencies. It segments its
customers into categories such as consumer, medium business,
large corporate, enterprise, and education. Each segment has its
own sales, marketing, and technical support teams. "This method
lets us tailor our marketing, sales, and services strategy to the
uniqueness of that customer type," says Parra.

Desktop systems accounted for two-thirds of Dell's revenue for
the second quarter of fiscal 1998. Server sales show steady
growth, accounting for 12% of revenue in the second quarter-up
8% year-over-year-and 11% in the first quarter of 1998.

Dell is increasing its emphasis on storage and Fibre Channel
products. Earlier this year, the company partnered with Data
General to make Fiber Channel-based storage systems. Dell has
more than 30 accounts and expects general availability late this
month.

The PC maker also plans to increase its international presence.
The company could raise its growth rate if it captured the same
share of the market worldwide as it holds in the United States,
says Rollins. Dell held nearly 13% of the U.S. desktop market in
1997, according to Dataquest, and its revenue mix is highly
concentrated in the United States. "We're pushing toward a more
normal mix of 50% in the U.S. and 50% for the rest of the
world," Rollins says.

Just last month, Dell opened a manufacturing facility in China
and kicked off direct sales in nine Chinese cities. Only 6% of
Dell's revenue now comes from the Asia-Pacific region, so the
company plans for major growth there. Dell also plans to expand
in South America and will soon unveil a new manufacturing
facility in Brazil.

What can hold Dell back? Customers continuing to spend on
year 2000 in lieu of hardware purchases, for one, analysts say.
Dell's growth, as well as the growth for the PC industry,
"depends on what's going to happen over the next two years with
year 2000 and how PC demand is affected," says Aberdeen's
Patel.

But as far as Dell is concerned, it will continue to expand the
direct model to deliver products ahead of competitors; focus on
customers relations; bring new technologies to market; and push
into international markets. The company sees a tremendous
opportunity for growth, says Carl Everett, senior VP for the
personal systems group. And Dell won't slow down, he says,
because its strategy is aimed at preventing the company from
becoming lethargic.



To: Jim Bautch who wrote (67361)9/25/1998 2:44:00 AM
From: DO$Kapital  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
 
LOL!
HEY, I s'pose if David Koresh
could have a following anyone
can.
LT, DELL WIZARD? Ahhh, don't
think so.



To: Jim Bautch who wrote (67361)9/25/1998 8:40:00 AM
From: Mohan Marette  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
 
We take it you have THE CLUE & KEY to the MARKET,hold on to it you might need it.<eom>



To: Jim Bautch who wrote (67361)9/25/1998 12:43:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 176387
 
Jim, I think you haven't a clue about what drives Dell. Let me take one excerpt from your remarks which I believe capsulize your concerns:

DELL's more difficult year to year comparisons, it's valuation, and the overall weak conditions of the world economy will make it much more difficult for DELL to continue its past growth rate. I remember that about two and one-half years ago you could buy DELL, GTW, and CPQ for a P/E of less than 10. The only difference b/w now and then, is that PC sales growth as an industry has fallen from 25-30% to approximately 11%. Since DELL was growing just as fast a rate back
then, I ask "Where's the current value???". What is DELL going to do with all the new and planned manufacturing capacity when the entire industry goes to hell??


Basically, I break the concerns down to three areas:

1. Prospects for continued hypergrowth in the face of decelerating PC demand;
2. Weakness in world financial markets; and
3. Valuation of the stock.

Let me take these issues in order:

1. The prospects for continued hypergrowth in the current demand environment may indeed be limited. But this presupposes two assumptions, both of which may be faulty:

a. PC demand continues to decelerate; and or
b. Dell limits its business to current offerings;

But businesses are not stagnant. It was only about twenty years ago that IBM invented the PC. IBM no longer manufactures Selectrics. The point is that businesses evolve to meet new environments, and Dell will do so.

2. Weakness in the world's financial markets is indeed a concern. Dell has targeted two areas which are currently weak: Asia and Latin America. So the question really revolves around two subsidiary questions:

a. How likely is Dell's existing markets to be impacted by the woes of those regions; and

b. How soon before we can expect these regions to turn around?

Inevitably severe and sustained economic contractions in one part of the world will effect other parts as well. In particular, the US economy is dependant to a great extent on the economic health of Central and South America and Asia. So it would be naive to believe that our economy will go unscathed. Nevertheless, I believe that Asia will begin to rebound sooner rather than later. And when that happens we will see an increase in the price of commodities which will in turn propel the economies of other countries.

As the international financial crises have unfolded, Dell, owing to a vastly superior business model has been able to profit at the expense of its rivals. In fact, the evidence is becoming clearer each day that the competition is seeking ways to avoid competing with Dell. Dell has accomplished this by taking advantage of the rapid deterioration in prices of subcomponents -- an advantage that its rivals cannot utilize because of systemic inventory control problems.

3. Valuation of the stock is at once the thorniest and easiest of questions to address. Thorny because nobody knows how to properly value a growth company. I have challenged value investors repeated to come up with a decent multiperiod valuation model, and they simply can't do it. But the valuation issue is also easy to address in qualitative terms. Valuation in theory depends on three parameters: the risk free rate of return, the expected future cash flows, and the riskiness of those anticipated cash flows. The reason that Dell's valuation as a function of forward p/e is quite simple. Each of those parameters has improved with respect to Dell. Interest rates are lower, and the risk to anticipated cash flows seems to be quite a bit lower, and Dell's strong showing in the face of recently decelerating demand augers well for an eventual resumption the rate of increase in demand.

There is much more that I could write, but I think this is enough for now.

TTFN,
CTC