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Strategies & Market Trends : Bill Wexler's Profits of DOOM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: valueminded who wrote (3046)	9/25/1998 7:27:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4634

chris, i agree. pessimism is monitored by watching the money. small caps and illiquid stocks are pessimistic. the bios are pessimistic. the big caps (dow) are so overoptimistic as to be funny. slow to no growth. near record valuations. the inet stocks are in a speculative frenzy (pessimistic???). i will say i'm long some smaller issues i think are undervalued. however, i don't see any value whatsoever in most technology stocks and the big caps.

To: valueminded who wrote (3046)	9/25/1998 8:11:00 AM
From: Yamakita	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4634

I think the main reason we still have high P/Es is because the valuation methods of entire sectors like telecommunications, software, and the Net must be different. No one expected Microsoft's PE to be this lofty for so long, and the same could be said for Cisco, and lots of others. Yet over the years the real worth of those shares has appreciated far in excess of their growth rates, a phenomena we really haven't seen before. Even Greenspan admits that there's something to this "new economy." That's not to say there is no wisdom in rightly refuting the old saw, "this time it's different." Like it or not, the United States has a total lock on the sectors that will drive the global economy in the next century--telecommunications, software, semis, the Net, banking, pharmaceuticals. Notice that these tend to be the sectors with the high P/Es. It's because they deserve to be high. People have been saying they're too high in all those great companies for at least a decade, and they've been wrong for a decade. And will almost certainly be wrong in the future if they continue diss those sectors as overbought.

To: valueminded who wrote (3046)	9/25/1998 4:26:00 PM
From: Bill Wexler	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4634

ANTI-DOOM ALERT!!!!!!!!!! Jerry Favors was on CNBC about 20 minutes before market close today to announce we are in a "bear market" based on his "technical analysis". I can't think of a better contrarian indicator than that, with the possible exception of a blazing headline in Time magazine that reads: "SELL ALL YOUR STOCKS NOW!" I still gotta go with my gut. The market is going higher. I continue to accumulate quality companies and I'm still not opening any new short positions.