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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Trader who wrote (4739)	9/25/1998 4:24:00 PM
From: Clay M	Respond to of 44573

Did you notice how they spiked it up to 1062 getting towards the close to run the stops just before they brought it down? When you look at it on a one min chart, it sure looks peculiar.

To: Tom Trader who wrote (4739)	9/27/1998 9:55:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

Tom, Donald and all, Re: T.A. of the market- The big picture Part ONE - TREND LINES 1. L.T. Trend lines On the weekly chart of the SPX the uptrend line that was touched on 8/97, 10/97, 1/98 and 8/98 was broken on 8/27, around the same time the SPX broke the 200 days SMA. The longer uptrend line (touched 7/96 and 4/97) was breached briefly at the beginning of this month (the line was alittle under 970) , but the week closed over it and went higher. There is a third line, starting 6/97, that is tilted slightly upward, and held through all the declines in the second half of '97, except the October mini crash. This line was touched on 9/1 and in hindsight was proved to be important since the market rebounded from it. On the OEX the picture is the same for the first two lines, but the third line wasn't touched on 9/1. 2. M.T. trend lines Two lines seem to hold great importance: One is the support line that held all declines in the March-June period. This is a flat support line at SPX 1075, OEX 520. The other is the downtrend line from the July top, touched on 8/25 before the big decline. Here the picture is different for the SPX and the OEX. The more important line IMO is the flat support line. On the OEX this support also held against the 1st leg down from the top, while on the SPX, the 1075 level didn't hold in August , and the SPX found a local support at the 1055 level, until broken by the 2nd leg of decline. (Actually the OEX support line was 521 in the March-June period, and 519 in August, but allowing for the greater volatility in August, and since both levels represent intra day support, and on a closing basis have same value of 522.9, I took the liberty of calling them the same support, which, IMO, they are). Both OEX and SPX remained below that broken support line since 8/27. The down trend line from the top is also different between the SPX and OEX. On the SPX this line was breaced on 9/23 and the index retested it from above on the 24th and held over it. On the OEX the down trend line (7/20 and 8/25 intraday highs) was tested on 9/24 and held. 3. S.T. Trend lines The clear rising up trend line from the 9/1 bottom held against four attacks. It's parallel held against four rallies. These are two powerful lines, and a break to one side should IMO have a great importance. The lower line value for Monday is at SPX 1014, OEX 490, and the upper line at 1081 SPX, 521 OEX. We closed Friday in dead center. PART TWO - MOVING AVERAGES 1. 200 DMA The 200 days SMA is still inching upwards, and would require another 7-10% decline to reverse its course. The indices crossed under the 200 DSMA on 8/27 (SPX) and 8/28 (OEX). Both remained under it since, save for a very brief period at the end of 9/24 (around 10 minutes) and the morning of 9/25 (15 minutes). To be Continued

To: Tom Trader who wrote (4739)	9/27/1998 10:32:00 AM
From: Jerry Olson	Respond to of 44573

Morning Tom... i've looked at the semis...as of last week, almost all of them have momentum turning positive.. i would suggest taking 1/3 partial positions in any that you like.. I like: INTC-KLAC-KLIC-AMAT-ALTR....just to name a few.. my P&F charts look good, as the sector has reversed up as well.. if Alan G, cuts .50 basis points on Tues, we should see all time new highs before the end of the year... if he cuts .25, i don't think so.. i might add that my thinking is the semis & semis equips are still 2 full quarters away from a big turnaround...however by that time you'll have missed the bottom...we both know the markets are forward looking, and with INTC saying good things, and MU doing the same...i feel the time is right to nibble and build a base... hope this helps... with my regards, Jerry oh yeah.....the Eagles SUCK!!!!!!! talk to you later