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Strategies & Market Trends : RENEGADE TRADER'S INVESTMENT FORUM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael j. brown who wrote (90)	9/25/1998 5:40:00 PM
From: NASDBULL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1764

I did an analysis of QFAB today. Here it is: I did a valuation analysis of QFAB compared to the other very closely compared 8 companies in QFAB's industry. One thing you have to keep in mind is that QFAB's earnings are going down, but due to a one time occurence(technology mishap) and also the crisis overseas making it cheaper for customers to import product rather than get it from QFAB. However, QFAB's industry will have the same problem it seems. This is just an overview of QFAB's valuation and possible short term price targets for QFAB over the next couple of weeks! I took the average p/e, price to book and price to sales ratios of QFAB other eight industry companies(IFSIA, PTX, SHX, MHK, BIB, CRW, SMI and CNSO) I threw out the high and low in each category. Industry Averages: P/E = 14.24 P/B = 1.77 P/S = .49 Currently QFAB ratios are as follows(In calculating the P/E, I used the last three quarters and the next quarter projection of .03/share, which gives us .58/share in earnings). P/E = 8.62 industry = 14.24 price target for full valuation for QFAB = $8.25/share P/B = .72 industry = 1.77 price target for full valuation for QFAB = $12.25/share P/S = .22 industry = .49 price target for full valuation for QFAB = $11.125/share *full valuation as compared to current industry averages You can see the price target over the next few weeks that I have for QFAB is between $8.25 and $12.25 a share. I would think since 1999 is going to be flat. You can assume earnings will be around .75 cents a share for QFAB. That would give us a lower forward looking p/e of around 6.50. The current levels of this stock's price are VERY low at this point. Although $8.25 is 65% above current levels, I think that is very realistic over the next two weeks. It can be reached if we see a stock buyback program from management, but don't cross your fingers. Enjoy, NASDBULL