To: Skipperr who wrote (5730 ) 9/26/1998 8:13:00 AM From: OldAIMGuy Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 18928
Hi Everyone, All in all, not a bad week. AIM and I had the opportunity to take profitable cash back out of the market with a few stocks, while buying a bit more of some others. We ended the week about 80 NASDAQ points ahead of where we did a week ago. I'll have to check the Russel 2000 to see if it also did well. I attended a seminar on macro economics yesterday in Madison. One of my favorites from Wall Street Week, Louis A. Holland, was a speaker there. He's an alumnus of the University of Wisconsin and played football for them (I believe in a Rose Bowl). Some very interesting points were raised in the day long lectures. One was that the size of the Russian economy is inconsequential to the US, but not the number and capability of their weapons. A suggestion was made that it might be far cheaper to BUY all of Russia's nuclear warheads than to ever have to defend ourselves against them. Interesting idea. Pragmatic in that it eliminates the possibility of them being sold to others who's interests are not the same as ours and helpful in that it would infuse Russia with much needed cash. Another item that was brought to the focus of my attention is the magnitude of the Japan banking problem. Compared to our S&L default rate of about 3% during that crisis, Japan's loan defaults equal almost 30%. Yet, there seems to be no leadership rising to solve their problem, the first step of which is to admit the problem. The speaker was also correct in stating that almost any typically "American" economic tools that might be used to repair the Japan economy won't work. Sort of like trying to work on English fastners with Metric wrenches. The consensus seemed to be that Mr. Greenspan's easing of Fed rates was a good thing and none too soon. They all seem to think that he will gradually (0.25 at a time) reduce rates. Maybe as many as three times in the next year or so. All of the speakers gave about a 50/50 chance of the US economy falling into technical recession in the next year. They gave this address as a place to be able to access the various speeches over the next week or so. They'll all be archived, but it will take time. Even the Q&A sessions were included. (see if you can guess which questions I asked!).wisc.edu Best regards, Tom