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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stitch who wrote (4534)	9/26/1998 12:54:00 PM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Stitch, I've seen (and not heeded) that warning before<g>. Yes, I think 1999 or 2000 was the year for .02/mb. Looks like we'll go below that in 99, if current trends keep up. Here is an interview with Steve Luzco, talking to VARs about their wonderful opportunity in storage: techweb.com Now if only he would tell us investors about the wonderful opportunities in storage....

To: Stitch who wrote (4534)	9/26/1998 1:24:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9256

Stitch, [edited] my notes after attending a presentation by Porter on 6/10/97: don't know if the links still work I went to hear Jim Porter, CEO of Disk/Trend, talk at an IEEE meeting 6/10/97:. Here's a summary of my notes. Title of talk was 'Outlook for Disk Drives'. Much of the information is also available at disktrend.com There is a DVD site at ima.org For the most important numbers from the latest report see... disktrend.com THERE MAY BE ERRORS IN MY NOTES - please check the Disk/Trend site. · Areal density increases at 60% per year through year 2000 · Areal density increases 10x every 5 years · Drives with highest density are 2.5" Year 1997 - 2.6 Gbits/sqin. Year 2000 - 10.8 " Year 2001 - 17.3 " · 3.5" drives have 80% of 2.5" density · Highest densities are in desk top drives now. · By 2000: 5.8 Gbytes/disk for 2.5" 11 " 3.5" · By 2000 DVD will surpass CD-ROM in volume · Most popular drives: 1997 2-3 GB, 2000 10-20 GB · 2 cents per MB by 2000 · Volume increase of all drives shipped: +17.3% 1996 +20.3% 1997, +18% 1998, +16.7% 1999, +15.6% 2000 · Cartridge drives (NOT ZIP, but JAZ included): 1.85 million in 1997, 3.4 in 1998, 6.3 in 1999, 9.7 in 2000 · 1996 domestic $$ volume (millions): Seagate 7726, IBM 7024, Quantum 4372, Western Digital 3533, Iomega 147 (JAZ only?) · Total US $ (millions): 26397 in 1997, 34330 in 1998, 48153 in 1999, 60122 in 2000 · CD-ROM worldwide (millions drives): 66 in 1997, 76 in 1998, 85 in 1999 · High capacity flex. disk drives (millions): 5.07 in 1996, 11.47 in 1997, 18.91 in 1998, 25.47 in 1999 · 1.44 MB floppies (millions): 88 in 1996, 98 in 1997, 104 in 1998, 106 in 1999 · Only 5% of users have high capacity floppies (niche market) · Answer to my direct question: does not see floppy replacement by 2000, primarily because of price. OEMs pay $17 for a floppy in 1997, 15 by 2000. 2.88 MB floppy never caught on. · Hard drive supply/demand in equilibrium now. NOT a commodity! Difficult to enter, hard to manage. Look at attrition of HD companies.