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Strategies & Market Trends : The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alski who wrote (21702)	9/27/1998 5:42:00 PM
From: Magnatizer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 79199

Thread Magnets for Dow, SP5 and a thought on R2K Dow: 7192, 7340, 7425, 7458, 7572.5 to 7582, 7724, 7866 to 7792, 7933, 7969 to 7986, 8150 to 8045 (not a magnet trendline, just a short term downtrend line), 8142.5, 8352, 8561 The trendlines in bold are the most important for the long term health of the Dow. They meet on OCTOBER 16TH, I expect the Dow to make up its mind going into that date. Trendline crossovers often are preceeded by a hard run one way or the other. If the downtrend holds this week I suspect we will see a nice run going into mid Oct. If it fails the uptrend becomes the next target. If it fails get ready for one great buying opportunity for those looking to get into some long (more than 3 year) positions. My weekly Dow Chart is still on sell. Short term indicators are pointing toward strength early this week. They are flattening so it is either a time for resetting them or a time for them to turn down. I don't feel confident in the market going one way or the other enough to play it right now. SP500: 929 to 930, 929, 932, 956 to 958.5, 957, 981, 996 to 997, 1005.5, 1005.5 to 1008, 1021 to 1014, 1027 to 1029.5, 1030, 1041.7, 1054.4, 1078.8, 1103, 1127.7 SP500. The downtrend must hold or the series of uptrends will be tested. If the first uptrend holds that will be very good, if the second uptrend holds, well its OK. If the third uptrend holds the market should be bought for a short term pop. If the third uptrend does not hold I will need to reevaluate. SP500 is also on weekly sell. This tells me the market is not ready to sustain a run. R2K: My main index indicator is now pointing down. It could reverse if Monday and Tuesday are strong but it is not likely. I expect a retest of the 340-350 area ht david

To: Alski who wrote (21702)	9/27/1998 7:21:00 PM
From: Doug R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 79199

Alski, The nature of the technical profile of most stocks in the current overall market environment tends to dictate extreme caution and a very short term horizon. That's not to say that there are not some stocks with decent to good intermediate and long term potential. BUT as I have stated a couple times in the last month, it's best to plan on a 2 to 3 day holding period for most stocks on the long side. The oversold nature of many issues tends to dictate the same on the short side since individual rebounds on many stocks could occur at any time. Some of these rebounds will be sharp and relatively large (very profitable) for those who can avoid falling in love with them. That said, RADAF is not mentioned as anything more than a stock to watch for a quick and possibly temporary jump on volume. ALSC has the potential, technically, to do what I posted. In cases like MUEI (which took 2 weeks to reach the target), it may take longer than 2 or 3 days to reach a target but caution should be maintained above all (which is why I lowered the target after the first week...it hit the original target anyway). Ok, now that everyone is on the same page here I can say that CPIA has very good potential for a sharp and relatively large rebound along with the stocks on Bdog's convergence list and the stocks I listed yesterday, CPSS, CMED, EXBT, ESOL and SVGI. I watched XOMA all day Friday with the caution I'm talking about in mind. It was very tempting to buy it all day but it didn't get going (and I didn't buy it for that reason) so I'll throw that one in with the others here. The only stocks I feel comfortable enough with to mention for the intermediate to long term are SPYG and CADE. There should be plenty of time to get into SPYG below 14 which is, at this point, the highest I would recommend getting in. When it's up over 20 and people think they should get all excited about buying it, it will really be too late. Just like MTON at 8, APCO at 6 1/2 or CADE at 2, there were people like Linda Kaplan who bought at prices like 12, 13 or 3 1/2 then expected that all stocks that were going up would just continue to do so forever. NO stock goes up forever. I did have a very optimistic target for MTON but they just kept having contracts cancelled or not renewed and that began a series of uptrend line breaks that anybody should have been aware of on their own. APCO was going up so fast that it was ridiculous for anyone to think it was sustainable. Then the recent correction came in and well, you may have noticed quite a few sharp and relatively large rebounds have already occurred (like MTON from 5 to 8...60%). There's still a bunch of that kind of rebounding in the wings and those stocks are what I'm looking for as far as short term trading goes. Now, to get to work on the rest of those stocks I have to go over. Long post, huh?? Doug R