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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Miguel Octavio who wrote (4331)	9/27/1998 11:58:00 PM
From: Capitalist	Respond to of 21876

>>ALA would be good, it dropped in half in teh last month and would give them international exposure and distribution<< ALA would also give them product overlap... SH

To: Miguel Octavio who wrote (4331)	9/28/1998 12:58:00 AM
From: lkj	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

I see ASND and ERICY as possible targets. ASND-- obvious reasons. ERICY-- 1)LU has not been successful at selling GSM stuff. 2)China is a HUGE market for GSM. 3)I recall that ERICY management has talked about intentions to merge with a bigger company. 4)An ERICY acquisition would also speed up the the transition to 3G. I have not heard anything about Lucent working on cable modem related stuff. The recent AT&T acquisition of TCI would certainly make Lucent thinking about cable. But I have no idea who would be a good acquisition candidate. I am getting really excited as Oct. 1st approaches. I have confidence in the Lucent management to make excellent decisions. The Octel acquisition was a surprise to me, but look how NICE it has turned out.

To: Miguel Octavio who wrote (4331)	9/29/1998 2:56:00 AM
From: jach	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

FORE at the top rating for LU buy list based on the following analysis --------------------------------------------------------------------- using the ten acquisition value factors weighing against the cost base; Each factor is 1 to 10 where 10 being the highest value factor; FORE, ASND, COMS and added CSCO as a sanity check .............................FORE ASND COMS CSCO Enterprise Data Mkt 8 6 9 10 SP/Carrier Mkt 6 9 7 8 Retaining talent 8 6 6 6 Synergy 8 6 6 8 Mkt Share 6 9 7 10 Existing product line 7 9 7 8 Future product line 8 8 7 9 Overlap 8 7 7 6 Adaptability 9 7 6 6 Near term/Long term wins 7 8 6 8 ========================================== -------- total ---------- 75 75 68 79 Cost is taken out based on 1 point per 1B$ current mkt valuation: FORE 75 - 2 = 73 ASND 75 - 9.5 = 64.5 COMS 68 - 11.5 = 56.5 CSCO 79 - 103 = -24 Based on this analysis, IMO, the list is as follows: FORE (73) is the most likely candidate of these four and CSCO very likely will not happen (-24)