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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alan Norton who wrote (1225)	9/28/1998 6:15:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Alan: Nicely thought out post. Re: "I heard him say today that his model is predicting new highs in six to twelve months, just as you say. What has Bob done to his model and why should listeners have confidence in a forecast so far in the future? A lot can happen between now and late spring/summer." Yes, you are right on the timing factor. Six to twelve months are a long way out and Brinker's model supposedly does not go out that far. I personally think Brinker is giving the market time to work through all of the issue overhang but I would welcome some rationale for his time frames as I have said before. In the final analysis, you have to make the decision that to be bullish is to be on the right side of the market at this time. Re: "I have lost a lot of respect for Bob over the past month. His model clearly failed to predict the magnitude of the correction (no problem with that, every model eventually fails), but he has downplayed this and now continues to use the same model to make forecasts that a few months ago he was unwilling to make." The model is not designed to predict less than 10% corrections. Supposedly the model is designed to predict intermediate corrections of between 10% and 20%. These are the most difficult to project. They are rare ducks. The model failed to pick up this intermediate correction. The numbers don't lie and he has admitted this on the program several times. He has not downplayed this in my opinion. He has gone out of his way to admit he was mistaken in analyzing the magnitude of the correction. But the model designed primarily to predict bear markets. I would not call this a bear market at this point while certainly a number of individual stocks have had their own bear markets. But I prefer to make any final judgements regarding Brinker's model performance come sometime next year. Re: "I changed my mind about holding on to my equities. After I heard about the 73 page Clinton rebuttal to the Starr report, I sold the rest of my winners. I don't want to be in the market if impeachment hearings start. I am quite satisfied to sit on the sidelines and watch. Rewards go to those who risk capital - the trick is to know when the risks are too high for any expected returns and that can only be a personal decision." Excellent point regarding risk/rewards. I agree to a certain extent. Prolonged impeachment hearings will be a detriment to investor sentiment to some degree. But it is not enough for me to leave the market in any way at this time.