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To: Andrew Vance who wrote (15548)	9/29/1998 12:53:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17305

New Y2K legislation: news.com

To: Andrew Vance who wrote (15548)	9/29/1998 3:18:00 PM
From: Czechsinthemail	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 17305

Northern Telecom's announcement has had negative impact on many telecom-related stocks today, including VTSS and AMCC. I believe AMCC is more heavily involved with Northern Telecom, but I guess a sinking ship swamps all boats. Any thoughts on which companies are likely to be most negatively affected and which are most likely to spring back from the selloff? Baird

To: Andrew Vance who wrote (15548)	9/29/1998 4:18:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17305

AV, What are your thoughts on WFR at these prices? If earlier this year someone had told me WFR would be where it currently is, I would have told them I would jump on it. However, I am not jumping now, even at these prices. I am still reluctant that they may be losing $$ for a long period since they have the most to lose with the 300mm delay. Are you a buyer at these levels? TIA BK

To: Andrew Vance who wrote (15548)	9/29/1998 4:59:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17305

Andrew: I have an idea to brainstorm with you. I see the possibility of a DRAM shortage developing so pinch me and bring me down to earth <GG>: 1. Many DRAM players are packing their bags. There is a herd mentality now to get out of the business. After all is said and done, it looks like we will be left with four or five major players. I see a greater probability with this scenario that prices will at least stabilize. Human nature is such that the fewer the number of players there are, the less likely one player will cut prices to get market share and the more likely that a cartel psychology can develop which can actually increase prices. 2. MU is already the low cost producer. If it has ready access to capital, it will continue to push the technology down to the lowest micron economically viable to increase yields and profits. If you are another player, you are going to have to upgrade your equipment or die. MU is, in effect, accelerating the reorganization of the DRAM market. In this environment marginal players will drop out faster and the possibility for shortages increases. 3. INTC and TI must see this as they are trying to align themselves to benefit from or counteract this trend. 4. New players or sponsors with capital may enter if the shortage develops to play or provide financing. 5. The semi-equips recover and prosper. 6. I am a rich man. Help me, I think I am losing my mind <GG>>

To: Andrew Vance who wrote (15548)	9/30/1998 6:05:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 17305

Andrew: Get this. After my previous post, I found somebody who is almost as crazy as I am: European Executive Expects 5%-8% Recovery In Chip Market PARIS -(Dow Jones)- The chief economist for Franco-Italian semiconductor maker STMicroelectronics NV Tuesday forecast a recovery for the chip market in 1999, but his numbers fell short of the bullish projections made Monday by an American research firm. STM's Jean-Philippe Dauvin expects the chip market for 1998 to fall 8.0% to 10% from its performance in 1997. For 1999, Dauvin estimated market growth at 5.0% to 8.0%. On Monday, U.S. research firm Dataquest Inc. estimated the world-wide semiconductor market would grow by 11.8% in 1999, with revenue of $155 billion. "I don't think 12% is out of the scope (of possibility), but I think we should be more around 5.0% to 8.0% growth" for 1999, Dauvin said. He added that Dataquest's estimate of a 6.0% market decline in 1998 was too optimistic, since it implies a strong rebound in fourth-quarter sales. "I think the Dataquest outlook for the fourth quarter is a bit rich," he said. The chip sector has been plagued by oversupply caused by lower-than-expected demand for personal computers and the Asian financial crisis, among other factors. Industry watchers have been trying to figure out when things might again begin to pick up. As an industry, "we built too much capacity" starting in 1994 and 1995, said Dauvin, who also chairs the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics group. "Then came the Asian issue, which is accelerating the purging of the system, but it is a very bitter pill which could last another one, two or three quarters." However, Dauvin said he felt that "in the third quarter and in the fourth quarter, we are near the bottom of the cycle" for the market. He said reduced capital expenditure by semiconductor companies, the growth of the sub-$1,000 category for personal computers, which has spread to Europe, and the closures of some production facilities all augured well for 1999. In fact, Dauvin said he expects there to be significant capacity shortage in a couple of years. Discussing reduced capital investment and production decreases, he said, "I think there will an overreaction as great as the reaction of the last two years," which led to too much capacity. Dauvin repeated his long-held assertion that there are good fundamental reasons to expect growth in the semiconductor market because of the ever-progressing technology advances and price declines.