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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (4766)	9/29/1998 9:20:00 AM
From: SE	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 44573

Patrick, Not sure why you are trying to file 15 years of paperwork.....heck, anything older than 7 years, put in a box, put the box in the attic and forget about it! The other 7, file that..... Anyway, the point of this post is to describe, in my simplistic fashion, the support and resistance levels for the SP8Z. The downtrend line was broken a few days ago at 1046. We are now above that. This is on the 120 minute chart. The parallel uptrend channel remains in-tact, a flag if you will. However, that flag has been continuing now for four weeks and if I recall correctly, flags tend to lose their interpretive power if they last longer that three to four weeks, so the ability to view this flag as a continuation pattern for the downtrend is getting less and less. That being said the support is the bottom channel and the resistance the top. How is that for stating the obivious. The downtrend line and the bottom of the channel meet at about 1035, which should be a tough nut to crack. Currently the downtrend line sits at 1040, so the downside support exists in the 1035 to 1040 range as of today. If the SP8Z breaks that level, I suspect we will re-test the lows. On the up-side the 1090 level and rising is acting as resistance. Range bound? 1035 to 1090? Can't ask for anything more than that...that is a great trading range. On a 240 minute chart, you have basically the same scenario. However in either case it could be argued that the downtrend has not been broken as the trendline could use the latest high at 1080 as the trendline and not the Aug 25 or so high of 1120. If this is the case, then we are at the top of the trading range with room to 1070 and declining. Personally, being of the bear nature read, I think we are at the top of the declining trendline. I would not be surprised to see us pierce the that trendline today and maybe run to 1075, but I suspect the trendline will hold and it will be downhill from there. How extreme, I have no idea. Today I will be playing my indicators almost exclusively. For the most part, and probably the complete part, I will not be anticipating any moves in the market. If I were, I would suspect a sell at 1070 or above probably would prove profitable. Have fun and good luck today. -Scott