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Technology Stocks : MEMC INT'L. (WFR -NYSE) The Sleeping Giant? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce A. Thompson who wrote (3836)	9/28/1998 5:04:00 PM
From: Scotsman	Respond to of 4697

Kinda like Rockfeller in the Great Depression. He realized he could buy oil cheaper per barrel by purchasing the oil stocks instead of the oil itself.

To: Bruce A. Thompson who wrote (3836)	9/28/1998 5:13:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4697

Bruce, not so fast, they have only about $16 MM in cash and they have $110 in short term borrowing. Their book is indeed $12/share, but unless their sales rapidly go above about $275 MM quarterly, they will continue to bleed. The "concessus estimate is for a loss of $4 next year (close to this year's loss) thus their book will be reduced to $8/share, they will have to borrow an additional $100 MM or so, if indeed they'll lose $4/share in 1999 (I just cannot see that kind of a loss, since sooner or later, someone will have to fold, and I do not think it will be WFR). The point I am trying to make is it might still be too early to jump. I suggest and see where the next October massacre gets us before jumping with two feet. Zeev

To: Bruce A. Thompson who wrote (3836)	9/28/1998 8:15:00 PM
From: Carl R.	Respond to of 4697

Well, if they hadn't bought those 1 million shares back at 17 they would certainly have a lot stronger cash position. Then there is the matter of the generous severance packages they offered this spring in order to convince senior people to leave. Why not just pick the ones that they want to get rid of and fire them? For a rich company like IBM to offer severance packages is one thing. For a company in trouble to do so is quite another. The problem for this company is that they don't seem to be very good at projecting what is happening in their own business cycle. They have been very arrogant the whole time I have been following them. And now they are paying the price. Carl