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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wren who wrote (1241)	9/29/1998 10:24:00 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Alan writes: Perhaps we are simply discussing semantics here, but for those listening on the radio, semantics are important. Only a bit. What is important is buying in whole hog at DJIA 8650 and not having dry powder at DJIA 7400. Truman left on this note. Compared to all the chest thumping and bad news bear thumping BB does, I think he needs to address his model failure more. Didn't he say before the pullback that his model does not distinguish between an intermediate term correction and a bear? I believe the conclusion of his model, just I think it needs some adjustment and the audience needs more explaination of why it missed (yes Clinton, Russia and yaddayadda but if this sort of event can happen then BB needs to widen his definition of "correction" to keep the model valid) Wren quotes Barrons: At the close on Sept. 21, the average price decline of all equities listed on the NYSE was 35.9% from its 52 week high. Nasdaq was even worse, down 46.9%. One European-wide index of all stocks is off 30% from its 52 week high. and the other definition of a bear involves duration which I think we are talking getting close to 6 months for the Russell 2000... quote.yahoo.com^RUT&d=t shows we have been down for about 4 months now. Most agree that duration needs to be 6 months to be called a bear vs intermediate term correction. IF we are working our way back to new highs, then I think intermediate term correction is the right term, but only time will tell. suite101.com regards Kirk out