To: Mary Cluney who wrote (65627 ) 10/7/1998 1:47:00 AM From: stak Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 186894
Mary, First of all, let me say that it's nice to see you detour from your usual policy of not predicting the future. I appreciate your efforts to put your opinions in the public domain. >>These (Digital photography devices, appliances, set-tops, dumb terminals, various StrongArm app's, etc.), I believe, are just a side show. They will never exceed more than 10% of Intel revenue - but it will buy Craig Barrett some time and keep the nervous nellies and extreme pessimists (present company excluded) from dumping the stock. << This is the one that really shocks me. Just a side show?!? Do you believe that even in 5 years that this will account for only 3-5 billion of revenues for Intel (assuming Intel gets up to 30-50 billion of revenue)? If this is "just a side show" what is the main course for Intel? --The entire traditional PC market will almost disappear in a 5-10 year time frame.-- Are you penciling in huge revenue increases for servers by the year 2003??? That's a lot of eggs to put into one basket... What are other growth areas that you vision for Intel? Intel's new StrongARM chip architecture, acquired from Digital Equipment, will make Intel a player in handheld and TV set-top computers, said Craig Barrett, Intel's CEO and president, speaking at the Intel Developer Forum here. These are two markets where it has no real presence but which could turn into huge markets in the future. "The StrongARM is complementary to the Intel architecture. It is great for handheld devices, great for set-top boxes, great for [other] devices," Barrett said. "You can expect to see new [StrongARM] architectures roll out on a biannual basis." Intel's other chips also get an architectural refreshing every two years. Here's the link to full text article that includes Barrett's quote. news.com >>In five years time, I believe, Intel will be the dominant company in the computer industry for these reasons: Intel's dominant position will be spearheaded by the IA64 platform. Further, a lot more of the OS, Communications, and the more complex Applications software will be embedded in the hardware. As a consequence, I see Intel encroaching into territories that are now dominated by IBM (mainframes), Sun (WS and Servers), Cisco (communications), and Microsoft (OS software). Intel is more focused, has the financial muscle, and occupies the center, or middleground, to bring all these things together in a coherent manner - more so than any other company in the world today.<< How could Intel be "the" dominant company with almost no presence in software, content or services??? It needs a much greater voice in each of those areas going into the year 2000 and beyond. I agree with your opinion on Intel encroaching on "IBM (mainframes), Sun (WS and Servers)". However, regarding: Cisco (communications), and Microsoft (OS software) I'm not so clear. Could you be more specific on what Intel is doing to challenge Cisco and Microsoft? How is Intel going to get any bigger piece of the pie from Cisco? I just don't see it happening with the current strategy. Cisco's end-to-end solutions and customer service are far superior to Intel in the communications field. It's promising to see Intel link up with Redhat to add another O/S to the IA-64 universe. Do you know of any plans by Intel to get into software development for the IA-64? Will they ever come out with their own office suite or entertainment software? In a best case scenario I'd like to see Intel bundle an O/S with IA-64. Maybe not for free a la Explorer , but at a perhaps 90% discount to MSFT's O/S. Is this possible with Red Hat? Or another unified UNIX O/S? The proprietary UNIX O/S's will more than likely see their O/S share plummet anyway when MSFT goes 64 bit. Without a completely new strategy in software Intel doesn't look to encroach to a very significant degree revenue wise. >> sub $500 computers (yesterday's concerns)<< Out of curiousity, why is a product that hasn't come out yet yesterday's concerns? By 500$ computers, I also include the upcoming "computer like" appliances. stak