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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (24723)	9/30/1998 9:48:00 AM
From: Fortinwit	Respond to of 70976

Justa, all, SVGI Warns (twice) (YAWN) briefing.com SILICON VALLEY GROUP (SVGI) 9 1/16: Oil isn't the only commodity based industry having problems. Before the open Wednesday, semiconductor equipment maker Silicon Valley Group (SVGI) warned that fiscal fourth quarter (Sep) sales will be 10% to 15% below the prior quarter. SVGI also said that a further 10% to 15% drop is likely in the first half of the fiscal year starting in October, compared to the six month just concluding. In response, SVGI is going to lay off another 300 employees and close a plant in the United Kingdom. SVGI has already undergone a serious drop in revenue. Revenues were down slightly in fiscal 1997 (Sep), but then revenue increase in the first two fiscal quarter of this year (through March). Then the trouble hit. In the quarter ended in June, revenues were down 41% from the prior quarter, and 30% from the year earlier period. It is from this lower base that SVGI now says revenues will drop both for the quarter just ended, and for the next six months. This is a pretty serious problem because SVGI lost $0.21 a share last quarter, and new revenues are dropping further. It is pretty obvious why they have to cut back their expenses. There have been a lot of hopes lately that the major semiconductor industry firms are experiencing an upturn in demand and pricing, but it is clear that a lot of related firms, particularly equipment makers, can not yet see the light at the end of the tunnel. SVGI stock has plunged from a 52-week high of 38 3/8, late last year in practically a straight line downward. It could go lower, and there could be some effect on other stocks in the industry. F.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (24723)	9/30/1998 10:59:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Hey, Ian, remember this Dauvin dude? <G> : Actually, no. <g> While I don't trust DataQuest forecasts, I trust company Chief Economist forecasts even less. Their forecasts help determine at what level of sales/earninbgs, the bonus plan will kick in. ... just a slight vested interest in providing a lower than expected forecast. Any analysis of Dataquest forecast accuracy that I've seen has implied that throwing darts may be a better technique though they usually get the direction right. FWIW, Ian.