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Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (6740)	9/30/1998 12:57:00 PM
From: Serge Collins	Respond to of 18016

Ian, You're knock on analysts is somewhat justified in that they tend to be a bit behind the story instead of in front of it. However, it is also true that they have a good track record of summing up the true story once they catch up to it. I wouldn't write off their warnings about the telcom sector. When they first started sounding alarm bells about two weeks ago, many scoffed at the suggestion that there could be a slowdown. Nobody is laughing today.

To: Ian@SI who wrote (6740)	9/30/1998 1:38:00 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Respond to of 18016

Ian, I think we will have a wonderful buying opportunity.The market will head down IMHO because of several reasons, mainly however: -a giant leveraged debt accumulated by the " cognoscenti " who placed undue faith on a couple of Nobel laureates equations. Those equations did not factor in human greed, fear, panic and irrational thought, all key ingredients of the stock market that they were trying to measure and quantify. - the fortuitously coincidental demand that this leveraged debt be paid now because of the rapidly faltering economic scenario occasioned by the plunge of Asia and coupled multinational big cap companies, Gillette, Coke etc.People want their money back now. -I believe that there isn't as much liquidity, moneys, to pay off this debt because a lot of today's wealth is a paper wealth attached to stock equities.By all measures stock prices at Pees of 50 are overvalued so there is no cash now. -there is coincidentally a political vacuum in the US leadership to try and fix this. -the IMF has no cash. -Republican Congress will not increase taxes to fund the IMF as in the past. Thus there is now no bail out hopes or life-saver for the cognoscenti ( Hedge Funds, Banks, rich folk etc. ). Thus the panic is greater. -lowering of Fed Funds will not help. It might have 30 years ago because by inflating the currency you cause inflation which devalues the currency and thus makes these debts easier to repay. This is the myopic course that Asia and Russia have taken. Alan Greenspan however won't be taken in by this which is why he only lowered the rate by 0.25%. -Any way lowering rates may not do the trick either: look at Japan, deep in recession with interest rates at 0.25% !!!! You need to relieve the people from the tax-yoke to get the economy going and get them to spend. -which brings us back to the crux of the market: over-taxation of people to pay for social " entitlement " programs in all the world.It has failed miserably but these folks don't see it and aren't ready to give it up yet. -so we now have 2 giant debts due with no cash: one is the leveraged Bank debt [ Hedge Funds, Japanese Banks with worthless real estate ( I guess that was the Japanese equivalent of Nobel laureate Schole's formula; same miscalculation of the " true " price of a commodity, land in this case; people easily forget that the "true" price of anything is only what some body else is willing to pay for it; and that can change like the weather; it does pay though to be more conservative: buy low, less chance of getting burned )]. the second is heavy duty social entitlement programs coming due.Only the US has gotten, a little, their hands around this and controlled it. But we are not enough to bail the world.At least not if the Prez is concentrating on being serviced by Monica, while Yeltsin is frantically calling on the other line for help. Other reasons for market going down include -an unprecedented constraint in the last 10 years of the market though the use of “ trading – halts –collars “ which has artificially prevented the Market from finding it's “natural” ( read: true ) valuation. -a similarly unprecedented ( in the market ) institution of “ computerized trading programs “ allowing a machine to do the thinking for you and forgetting a computerese fundamental principle, “ garbage in garbage out “. -forthcoming tax-selling season coming up. I bet with 8 years of bull market there are going to be a lot of folks who will want to lock in at least some of these profits. Is this enough for you? If not try this: many people haven't been through in the last 10 years through some real ugly market downturns: how do you think they will react if things start going to pot? Are fear and panic still present? Over-all I think we may get a total of 40% correction from the Dow's high of 9300 which will bring the Dow down to about 5600. I think then that will be a healthy spot to jump back in because values will become compelling.Our economy will still be strong , overvaluations will have been corrected, Asia and the rest of the world hopefully will have swallowed the bitter pill and moved on to a new expansion. That will also be a good time to wake up and smell the coffee, Starbucks that is…….. TA

To: Ian@SI who wrote (6740)	9/30/1998 3:01:00 PM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18016

It appears that they will do an outstanding job of creating a fabulous buying opportunity allowing the cream of the Telecom Equipment crop to be bought at bargain basement prices. I'm not sure whether to be disgusted with their inanity or grateful for the opportunity created. ;-) This is one of those days where it's best not to watch. I have a little Newbridge Beanie Bear sitting on my dictionaries here beside my PC and I'm tempted to put a white bag in his lap just because I know he's about to lose it. Poor fella. . . . I know how he feels. Has NT clarified yesterday's misquotes yet? Anything in the Canadian press? Looking for some sign of sanity. Later -- Pat