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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jach who wrote (17503)	9/30/1998 11:06:00 AM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77398

Jach, Stick with your position. You are arguing every possible issue - market pressure, weakness in Europe, weakness in Asia, startups with new products, incumbents with existing products. This is a pathetically formulated position. You say earnings will be impacted by weak Asia and Cisco's addition of resources there. How much is Cisco spending on the Asian build-out and what is that number as a percentage of Cisco's income? Do you know? If not you can't argue the position. The startups you mention have always been around. The names change but the game is always the same. I know it's hard to believe but Cisco doesn't win every account - they do lost some. Sometimes to large competitors sometimes to small ones, but you're blanket comment about these companies impacting Cisco's business is supported with no data. What business has the Cat lost that you're aware of? Why do you think losing this particular account or accounts will negatively affect earnings? As for the large competitors: NT is still trying to swallow BAY, INTC is spending it's time considering COMS who is also trying to figure out how to compete with a low-margin product line. LU is drooling waiting for Oct. and ASND is cowering in a corner worried about their long term future as a going concern. I read this as a lot of "what to we do to protect ourselves" rather than "what solutions should we work on next for our customers". Cisco is focused on the future - they will win. Which brings me to my next comment. Analysts and MM's all know Cisco is in the drivers seat. There is too much uncertainty out in the market - in techs, drugs, transportation, oils, etc.. When that happens money moves out of equities...the money that stays gravitates to stocks like Cisco. So, it is my belief that while the market slow's down, cisco will slow down less, and recover faster. Cisco IS THE VERY STOCK TO OWN in this kind of market. The MM's know this and will move their cash. They know that Cisco's Asian exposure in <8%, they know that Cisco's business in Europe is stong (go through the Cisco releases - they mentioned this), they know that Cisco is winning SP's in a major way, the know that Cisco is taking over the cable delivery systems, they know that the 12000 is still kicking ass, they know that Cisco is working on next generation products and technology that will lead the market, they know that thier money needs to be riding this little pony to take advantage of network churn estimated at $200B over the next 5 years. ALA and NT are bit players and no indication of CIsco's strength...and neither is RJR who cites Russia as their problems. Cisco has very VERY little Russian exposure. Jach, get a story we can follow and then back it up with some facts. OG

To: jach who wrote (17503)	9/30/1998 12:12:00 PM
From: JRH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77398

and in US, we now have the new startups such as Extreme, Foundry, Packet Engine, Alteon taking some mkt share from cscso CAT 5000 line; So, what is new? Are you saying that we have never had startups that have threatened Cisco before? And BAY, 3COM, and CS before now hadn't been able to outprice Cisco? Jach, this stuff is what Cisco has faced in the previous years. Nothing has changed, Cisco will remain strong and get stronger...

To: jach who wrote (17503)	9/30/1998 1:23:00 PM
From: Yaacov	Respond to of 77398

When you say European based companies, you are generalizing! Which Eurpean based comapnies, Swiss, Germans, Brits, or Italians? Today in particular is a bad day for major Eurpean markets becasue of disappointment with 1/4 % tax cuts that is considered not sufficent to help with the crisis! The forcasts here for Oct. are gloomy.

To: jach who wrote (17503)	9/30/1998 1:37:00 PM
From: jach	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77398

look at LU, NT and others; can drop up to 35 - 50%; for those that did move to SPY should be doing pretty good-

To: jach who wrote (17503)	10/1/1998 12:35:00 AM
From: jach	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 77398

historically speaking, price wars can make sector stocks nose-dived quickly- IMO one thing to think about from previous post - we now have the new startups such as Extreme, Foundry, Packet Engine, Alteon taking some mkt share from cscso CAT 5000 line; Bay, 3COM and CS with their latest products that can tremendously reduce price/port cost - that's in the Enterprise LAN area we've seen the bloody price wars and oversupply (companies need to sell to survive and when there are many companies selling similar products- potential disaster) in the portable disk drive (SYQT, IOM basically just kill each other by lowering prices, and where are their stock prices today), hard disk drive, semi conductor (look at DRAM prices and the semi companies local and abroad)- now IMO, if we look at this Enterprise sector it's getting very similar