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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (24725)	9/30/1998 11:02:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 70976

Paul, What if AMAT does what it did in the Fall of 95 going into 96? I just don't think now is a good time to buy anything on margin, even AMAT. FWIW, Ian.

To: Paul V. who wrote (24725)	9/30/1998 11:50:00 AM
From: Robert Schling	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Good luck Paul. I have the feeling that optimists like yourself have been driving the market up these days (and YHOO+AMZN). After reading your post, I feel much more comfortable about my short position. We may be witnessing the last acts of the play called "Find the Greater Fool". The crowd is circling faster and faster around the musical chairs... Just my -0.02. RS

To: Paul V. who wrote (24725)	9/30/1998 11:52:00 AM
From: Henry D	Respond to of 70976

Paul, i would like to see a repeat of 1996, but it seems the "experts" on wall street feel we will see a "U" shape recovery not a "V" shape one.

To: Paul V. who wrote (24725)	9/30/1998 1:04:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Intel Can't Meet Xeon Demand... September 30, 1998 ELECTRONIC BUYERS NEWS : Computer Reseller News' Joe Wilcox and Marcia Savage reported in the publication's Sept. 21 issue that server OEMs are supply-constrained in producing four-way servers based on Intel Corp.'s Xeon microprocessor. Sources told the CRN reporters that Intel's Xeon deliveries depend on a screening process, in which chips and chipsets that have been tested for four-way multiprocessors are "screened" against those that are suitable only for two-way or uniprocessor systems. John Miner, vice president and general manager of Intel's enterprise server group, acknowledged that the company cannot meet demand, but said the problem is short-term.

To: Paul V. who wrote (24725)	9/30/1998 2:04:00 PM
From: John L.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Paul that is a bold move in the face of all the nay sayers, the fed rate cut seems to have disappointed everybody. I don't use margin, it can be dangerous if short term sentiment is negative and you get called. The bottom is probably here, now the question is how long will it last. I hope your scenario plays out and we start seeing some positive developments soon to justify an upward march. Many posts have stated the time to buy is when everybody is negative, I don't think there are any bulls left so we may be there. Good luck .

To: Paul V. who wrote (24725)	9/30/1998 3:24:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Respond to of 70976

PV, You will excuse me if I don't share your optimistic short term outlook. Going into a margin position is risky and speculative in the equips at this time. I'm second guessing that you are hoping for an earnings surprise for the end of quarter/year report. You might want to read this article concerning multinational exposure going forward. biz.yahoo.com In any case good luck!! Still waiting patiently, BB

To: Paul V. who wrote (24725)	9/30/1998 4:05:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

good luck, Paul: You'll do OK buying on margin at these prices, as long as there is no chance of a margin call if AMAT hits 13 and the S&P 500 hits 750 in 1999. This could happen if the U.S. has a recession (30% chance), Latin America has a Malaysian-style credit drought (70% chance), and Japan continues to do nothing (80% chance). In February 1998, you guessed 1998 hi 70, lo 28, and end 60. All far too optimistic guesses. Your guesses for 1999 continue the pattern of overconfidence. Are you prepared to hold if the U-shaped downturn continues for most of 1999, and you don't get your projected prices till 2000 or 2001? If so, you will (eventually) do well on today's purchases. My estimate is that the longest we'll have to wait for an upturn in semi-equip orders, and a doubling of semi-equip stocks off the bottom, is 3Q 1999. Too much equipment will be obsolete by then, and technology buys alone will require a lot of new equipment. The soonest it could happen in 1Q 1999. Therefore, I plan to dollar-cost average over about the next 6 months into the sector. BTW, what made you decide to start buying? Value alone? The first news of a new planned fab in a very long time? Margin improvement at Micron, and sales improvement at Intel?

To: Paul V. who wrote (24725)	9/30/1998 9:29:00 PM
From: john dodson	Respond to of 70976

Paul: I'm also salivating about getting into AMAT in a big way (for me), but am just not quite convinced yet that we have seen the lows. So, I take it that you don't think year end tax selling will impact AMAT materially? Given that AMAT is down from where it's been most of the year, namely low to mid $30's, I tend to think that there WILL be a bit of tax selling in AMAT in November and December. Catch is, does it go on a run up to $35 before it hits? If it hits $20 anytime soon, then I'm probably in. Otherwise, I'll probably wait for December. Good luck, John Dodson