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Strategies & Market Trends : Bill Fleckenstein, the BEAR! Is he finally right? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bucky Katt who wrote (160)	9/30/1998 8:27:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 259

Speaking as a person whose positions are all resolutely bearish, and have been for two years, I have learned to respect the dying convulsions of this dinosaur market. People shorting and buying puts could still easily be hurt or see their capital exhausted before the dragon collapses into a heap of carrion. I am not going to take any further speculative bear positions until I get a clear technical signal from two thirds of the Marketgauge indicators that a bear market is in place, and until there has been something like a 15-20% bounce from some low point--like from 6500 back up to 7800 on the Dow. Even then I may just sit on my positions instead of trying to second guess the shorter cycles. If/when we get to Dow 6500 I will probably be moving a good bit out of BEARX and waiting a posssible additional shorting peak; otherwise I'll just wait in cash for a couple of years for the utlimate shakeout. Or so I think now. Who knows what irrationalities one may succumb to?

To: Bucky Katt who wrote (160)	9/30/1998 9:27:00 PM
From: edward miller	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 259

I agree this bull run is over, but I must take some issue with your contention that yuppies will sell heavily based on their 401(k) statements. You must remember that everyone is adding funds with each paycheck, and that the first half of July was up and so was September - OK not my much. When people look at this Qs statement I suspect they will think "Oh, the total is down a little, but it will come back". These same people will freak out in January. Overall I agree the party is over for a while.